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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks Picks and Prediction for Sunday, October 25, 2026

The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs visit the defending champion Seattle Seahawks for one of the most compelling games on the NFL Week 7 schedule. Kickoff from Lumen Field in Seattle is scheduled for Sunday, October 25 at 8:20 p.m. ET. NBC and Peacock will carry the Sunday Night Football broadcast.

Seattle is a surprising 2.5-point home favorite despite losing consecutive games and falling to 3-3. Kansas City enters at 5-0 after holding the Los Angeles Chargers to six points. The Chiefs are available around +120 on the moneyline, while the total is set at 42.5.

This matchup features Patrick Mahomes against one of the NFL’s best defenses, former Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III returning to Lumen Field and a Seahawks offense trying to solve its quarterback and offensive-line problems. Be sure to check out all of our free NFL Predictions.

Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5

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Odds used in this preview were available on October 20, 2026. Betting lines and player availability may change before kickoff.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Game Information

Matchup Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
Date Sunday, October 25, 2026
Kickoff 8:20 p.m. ET / 5:20 p.m. PT
Venue Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Stadium Type Outdoor stadium
Television NBC
Streaming Peacock and NFL+
Kansas City Record 5-0
Seattle Record 3-3
Best Bet Kansas City Chiefs +2.5

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Odds

Betting Market Kansas City Chiefs Seattle Seahawks
Moneyline Approximately +120 Approximately -140
Point Spread +2.5 -2.5
Total 42.5 points

The spread opened with Seattle favored by approximately 1.5 points before moving through the key number of two to Seattle -2.5. The market is giving considerable weight to Seattle’s home-field advantage, extra preparation time and defensive performance.

Kansas City is still an unusual underdog. The Chiefs are undefeated, average 28 points per game and have outscored their opponents by 57 points. Bettors can receive both the points and a plus-money price on the NFL’s only undefeated AFC team.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Statistical Comparison

Category Kansas City Chiefs Seattle Seahawks Advantage
Record 5-0 3-3 Chiefs
Points Per Game 28.0 24.7 Chiefs
Points Allowed Per Game 16.6 20.3 Chiefs
Total Offense Per Game 414.0 yards 332.2 yards Chiefs
Rushing Offense Per Game 159.8 yards 107.2 yards Chiefs
Passing Offense Per Game 261.8 yards 244.8 yards Chiefs
Total Defense Per Game 306.0 yards allowed 237.3 yards allowed Seahawks
Rushing Defense Per Game 88.8 yards allowed 96.0 yards allowed Chiefs
Passing Defense Per Game 224.0 yards allowed 156.8 yards allowed Seahawks
Third-Down Conversion Rate 41.7% 32.4% Chiefs
Defensive Third-Down Rate 35.7% 28.0% Seahawks
Quarterback Sacks Allowed 6 16 Chiefs
Defensive Sacks 8 16 Seahawks
Interceptions Forced 5 7 Seahawks
Turnover Margin +5 -1 Chiefs

Seattle’s defense is the main reason the Seahawks are favored. The unit is allowing only 237.3 yards per game, has recorded 16 sacks and has intercepted seven passes. Opponents are converting only 28% of their third-down opportunities.

Kansas City owns the more balanced statistical profile. The Chiefs lead this matchup in scoring, total offense, rushing offense, scoring defense and turnover margin. They have also protected Mahomes significantly better than Seattle has protected Sam Darnold.

Offensive Leaders

Category Kansas City Chiefs Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes: 1,309 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT Sam Darnold: 1,033 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT
Completion Percentage Mahomes: 66.5% Darnold: 60.4%
Passer Rating Mahomes: 103.1 Darnold: 77.4
Leading Rusher Kenneth Walker III: 665 yards, 6 TD Emanuel Wilson: 303 yards, 2 TD
Rushing Average Walker: 6.3 yards per carry Wilson: 3.5 yards per carry
Leading Receiver Travis Kelce: 299 yards, 2 TD Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 717 yards, 7 TD
Secondary Receiving Threat Tyquan Thornton: 219 yards, 2 TD Cooper Kupp: 179 yards, 1 TD

Recent Form

Team Recent Results Current Trend
Kansas City Chiefs Beat Miami 24-10, Las Vegas 30-27 and the Chargers 22-6 Five consecutive victories
Seattle Seahawks Beat the Chargers 30-23, lost to San Francisco 32-29 and lost to Denver 17-14 Two consecutive losses

Kansas City has won in several different ways. The Chiefs produced more than 30 points in two of their first four games, defeated Miami with defense and controlled the Chargers behind Walker and another strong defensive performance.

Seattle has been far less consistent. The Seahawks were competitive in losses to Washington and San Francisco, but their offensive performance against Denver represented a significant step backward. Seattle scored only 14 points and lost in overtime despite another strong showing from its defense.

Kansas City Chiefs Season Review

Kansas City enters Seattle as the AFC’s only undefeated team. The Chiefs have won all five games and own a plus-57 scoring differential. Their 22-6 victory over the Chargers was especially convincing because Kansas City controlled the game without needing Mahomes to manufacture a dramatic finish.

The offense is averaging 414 yards and 28 points per game. Mahomes has completed 66.5% of his attempts for 1,309 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. More importantly, the Chiefs have developed the league’s most productive running game around Walker. Kansas City is averaging 159.8 rushing yards, while Walker has gained 665 yards and six touchdowns at 6.3 yards per attempt.

The defense has allowed only 16.6 points per game and owns a plus-five turnover margin. The pass rush entered Week 6 with only four sacks but recorded four against Justin Herbert. Kansas City has not produced huge individual sack totals, but Steve Spagnuolo can manufacture pressure through movement, simulated rushes and well-timed blitzes.

The Chiefs’ biggest offensive advantage is variety. Mahomes can target Travis Kelce between the numbers, create quick completions for Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy or attack vertically with Tyquan Thornton. Walker then punishes defenses that remove a safety from the box to defend the passing game.

Seattle Seahawks Season Review

Seattle has fallen to 3-3 after opening the season with three wins in its first four games. The Seahawks remain competitive because of their defense, but consecutive losses to San Francisco and Denver have exposed problems with their offensive line, running game and quarterback play.

The Seahawks average 24.7 points and 332.2 yards per game. Those figures are respectable, but they are heavily influenced by explosive passing plays. The rushing attack averages approximately 107 yards, and leading rusher Emanuel Wilson is producing only 3.5 yards per attempt.

Darnold has completed 60.4% of his passes for 1,033 yards, seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. Seattle has publicly committed to Darnold, but protecting the football has become the offense’s central concern. His seven interceptions are tied for the most in the league.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been Seattle’s most dependable offensive player. He has caught 49 passes for 717 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 14.6 yards per reception. Smith-Njigba has accounted for nearly half of Seattle’s completed receiving yardage, making him the clear priority for Kansas City’s secondary.

Quarterback Comparison

Category Patrick Mahomes Sam Darnold Advantage
Passing Yards 1,309 1,033 Mahomes
Completion Percentage 66.5% 60.4% Mahomes
Yards Per Attempt 8.3 6.9 Mahomes
Touchdown Passes 9 7 Mahomes
Interceptions 3 7 Mahomes
Passer Rating 103.1 77.4 Mahomes
Sacks Taken 6 14 Mahomes
SGP Grade A+ C+ Chiefs

The difference at quarterback is difficult to overlook. Mahomes is completing a higher percentage of his passes, producing an additional 1.4 yards per attempt and has thrown four fewer interceptions despite facing many of the same defensive structures designed to eliminate explosive plays.

Darnold does not need to outperform Mahomes statistically for Seattle to win. He must avoid the negative plays that have repeatedly changed field position. Seattle’s defense is good enough to create a close fourth-quarter game if Darnold protects the football.

That remains a significant condition. Kansas City has intercepted five passes and ranks among the league leaders with a plus-five turnover margin. One short-field opportunity could decide a game with a total in the low 40s.

Kansas City Running Game vs. Seattle Run Defense

Walker’s return to Seattle is one of the game’s defining storylines. After spending four seasons with the Seahawks and winning Super Bowl MVP, Walker joined Kansas City and immediately became the centerpiece of a more balanced offense.

Walker has carried 106 times for 665 yards and six touchdowns. He produced 128 yards and two scores against the Chargers and has already recorded multiple game-changing runs this season.

Seattle is allowing only 96 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per attempt. The interior combination of Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams gives the Seahawks the size and quickness required to challenge Kansas City’s offensive line.

This is strength against strength. Kansas City does not need Walker to match his season average of 6.3 yards per carry. If he consistently creates four-yard gains and keeps Mahomes out of third-and-long situations, the Chiefs will remain in control of their offensive plan.

Kansas City Offensive Line vs. Seattle Defensive Front

Unit Key Players Performance SGP Grade
Kansas City Offensive Line Josh Simmons, Kingsley Suamataia, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith and Jaylon Moore Six sacks allowed in five games A-
Seattle Defensive Front Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, Jarran Reed, Uchenna Nwosu and Derick Hall Sixteen sacks in six games A-
Projected Edge Even

This may be the most important matchup of the night. Seattle has recorded 16 sacks, with Williams, Murphy and Ernest Jones producing three each. The Seahawks can generate pressure without constantly blitzing, allowing them to keep seven defenders in coverage against Mahomes.

Kansas City has allowed only six sacks. That protection has helped Mahomes average 8.3 yards per attempt and enabled Andy Reid to use longer-developing route combinations.

Jaylon Moore entered the week in the concussion protocol, making his status important. Seattle will test Kansas City’s tackle depth with pressure from Nwosu and Hall while attempting to create interior disruption with Williams and Murphy.

The Chiefs can counter by using Walker on draws and screens. They can also move the pocket to prevent Seattle from establishing predictable pass-rush angles.

Seattle Offensive Line vs. Kansas City Defensive Front

Unit Key Players Performance SGP Grade
Seattle Offensive Line Charles Cross, Grey Zabel, Jalen Sundell, Anthony Bradford and Abe Lucas Sixteen sacks allowed; recent protection problems B-
Kansas City Defensive Front Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Ashton Gillotte and Felix Anudike-Uzomah Eight sacks, including four in Week 6 B
Projected Edge Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle has allowed 16 sacks and struggled with interior communication during its loss to Denver. Christian Haynes was charged with five pressures allowed, while Beau Stephens allowed three.

Anthony Bradford has been designated to return from injured reserve and could reclaim the starting right-guard position. His return would strengthen Seattle’s running game and provide more physical protection against Kansas City’s interior defensive line.

Chris Jones does not have his usual sack total, but his ability to command double-teams remains essential to the defense. Kansas City produced four sacks against Herbert after recording only four during its first four games.

Spagnuolo will likely test Seattle with interior movement and delayed pressure. If the Chiefs force Darnold to speed up his reads, opportunities for interceptions should follow.

Position-by-Position Comparison

Position Group Kansas City Grade Seattle Grade Advantage
Quarterback A+ C+ Chiefs
Running Back A C Chiefs
Wide Receivers B+ A- Slight Seahawks
Tight Ends A C+ Chiefs
Offensive Line A- B- Chiefs
Defensive Line B A- Seahawks
Linebackers B+ B+ Even
Cornerbacks A- A Slight Seahawks
Safeties B+ A- Seahawks
Special Teams B+ B+ Even
Coaching A+ A- Chiefs
Overall A B+ Chiefs

Kansas City Offense vs. Seattle Defense

Category Kansas City Offense Seattle Defense Projected Edge
Scoring 28.0 points per game 20.3 points allowed Even
Total Yardage 414.0 yards per game 237.3 yards allowed Seattle
Rushing 159.8 yards per game 96.0 yards allowed Kansas City
Passing 261.8 yards per game 156.8 yards allowed Seattle
Third Downs 41.7% conversion rate 28.0% allowed Seattle
Turnovers Three Mahomes interceptions Seven defensive interceptions Seattle

Seattle’s defense has the personnel to slow Kansas City. Devon Witherspoon can move between the slot and the perimeter, Julian Love provides range at safety, and the defensive front can create pressure without leaving obvious holes in coverage.

The Seahawks still face a difficult strategic problem. Committing additional defenders to Walker creates favorable passing matchups for Mahomes. Playing lighter coverage packages invites Kansas City to continue handing the ball to a runner averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

Kelce could be the deciding player. Seattle’s coverage is designed to limit deep passes, but Kelce’s ability to settle into open areas between linebackers and safeties gives Mahomes a reliable answer on third down.

Seattle Offense vs. Kansas City Defense

Category Seattle Offense Kansas City Defense Projected Edge
Scoring 24.7 points per game 16.6 points allowed Chiefs
Total Yardage 332.2 yards per game 306.0 yards allowed Chiefs
Rushing 107.2 yards per game 88.8 yards allowed Chiefs
Third Downs 32.4% conversion rate 35.7% allowed Chiefs
Quarterback Protection Sixteen sacks allowed Eight defensive sacks Chiefs
Turnovers Seven Darnold interceptions Five defensive interceptions Chiefs

Smith-Njigba is the clear danger for Kansas City. His 717 receiving yards are more than the combined totals of Seattle’s next three leading receivers. He can win from the slot, attack intermediate zones and create explosive plays after the catch.

Kansas City must make Seattle find production elsewhere. L’Jarius Sneed, Mansoor Delane and the rest of the secondary can bracket Smith-Njigba on critical downs while challenging Kupp, Rashid Shaheed and AJ Barner to win isolated matchups.

The Seahawks also need more from their running game. Wilson has averaged only 3.5 yards per attempt, while Kansas City allows 88.8 rushing yards per game. An ineffective run game would allow the Chiefs to focus their pressure packages on Darnold.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Injury Report

Team Player Injury or Status Potential Impact
Kansas City Jaylon Moore, OT Concussion protocol Could affect Kansas City’s tackle rotation
Seattle Anthony Bradford, G Designated to return from injured reserve Could reclaim a major role at right guard
Seattle Zach Charbonnet, RB Returning from ACL rehabilitation Could make his season debut in a limited role
Seattle Jadarian Price, RB Injured reserve Remains unavailable for the running-back rotation
Seattle Elijah Arroyo, TE Shoulder injury Expected to miss significant time
Seattle Drake Thomas, LB Ankle injury Missed Week 6; status should be monitored
Seattle Chazz Surratt, LB Calf injury Could affect Seattle’s linebacker depth

Seattle could receive important reinforcements from Bradford and Charbonnet. Bradford’s possible return is particularly meaningful after the offensive line struggled against Denver.

Charbonnet may be used in a limited role if activated. His presence would provide Seattle with a more physical short-yardage option, but it would be unreasonable to expect a full workload in his first game following ACL rehabilitation.

Official practice reports and final game designations should be checked later in the week.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Weather Report

Expected Temperature Mid-to-upper 50s at kickoff
Wind Approximately 5-10 mph
Expected Gusts No significant gusts currently projected
Precipitation Game-specific models currently lean dry, although the broader Seattle forecast carries a chance of rain
Stadium Outdoor playing surface at Lumen Field
Betting Impact No major weather adjustment at this stage

The early game-specific forecast calls for temperatures around 59 degrees with light wind. The broader Seattle outlook still includes the possibility of rain Sunday evening, so the forecast should be checked again closer to kickoff.

Unless the rain probability or wind projection increases significantly, weather should not be the primary reason for betting the under. The stronger under argument comes from the quality of both defenses and Seattle’s offensive inconsistency.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Head-to-Head History

Category Result
All-Time Series Kansas City leads 34-19
Most Recent Meeting Kansas City won 24-10 in 2022
Most Recent Meeting in Seattle Seattle won 38-31 in 2018
Current Kansas City Streak Five consecutive victories in 2026
Current Seattle Streak Two consecutive losses

Kansas City and Seattle were AFC West opponents before the Seahawks moved to the NFC in 2002. The Chiefs lead the all-time series and won the most recent meeting by two touchdowns.

The most recent meeting at Lumen Field was far different. Seattle defeated Kansas City 38-31 in 2018 despite a strong performance from Mahomes. The quarterback and most of the supporting personnel have changed, but that game demonstrated the difficulty of winning in Seattle during prime time.

Five Key Matchups

1. Patrick Mahomes vs. Seattle’s Secondary

Seattle has allowed only 156.8 passing yards per game and has intercepted seven passes. Mahomes is producing 8.3 yards per attempt with a 103.1 passer rating. If he avoids forcing passes against disguised coverage, Kansas City should generate enough efficient drives to win.

2. Kenneth Walker III vs. Seattle’s Run Defense

Walker’s return creates an emotional storyline, but the statistical matchup matters more. Kansas City owns the NFL’s most productive rushing attack, while Seattle allows only 3.5 yards per attempt. The winner of this matchup will control the pace of the game.

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Kansas City’s Secondary

Smith-Njigba has 49 receptions, 717 yards and seven touchdowns. Kansas City cannot allow him to take over the game with repeated intermediate completions. The Chiefs must force Darnold to distribute the football to less productive options.

4. Seattle’s Offensive Line vs. Chris Jones

Seattle’s interior protection struggled against Denver, and Kansas City’s pass rush produced its best performance of the season against the Chargers. Jones’ ability to collapse the pocket could force Darnold into hurried decisions.

5. Sam Darnold vs. Kansas City’s Turnover Pressure

Darnold has thrown seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. Kansas City owns a plus-five turnover margin and has allowed only seven offensive touchdowns. Seattle cannot afford to give Mahomes and Walker short fields.

Matchup Report Card

Category Kansas City Seattle Advantage
Quarterback A+ C+ Chiefs
Rushing Attack A C Chiefs
Passing Weapons A- A- Even
Offensive Line A- B- Chiefs
Defensive Front B A- Seahawks
Run Defense A- A- Even
Pass Defense A- A Seahawks
Turnover Differential A C+ Chiefs
Special Teams B+ B+ Even
Coaching A+ A- Chiefs
Home-Field Advantage — A Seahawks
Overall Grade A B+ Chiefs

Keys to the Game for Kansas City

  • Keep the offense out of obvious passing situations.
  • Give Kenneth Walker III at least 20 touches.
  • Use Travis Kelce against Seattle’s underneath coverage.
  • Prevent Jaxon Smith-Njigba from generating explosive plays.
  • Create interior pressure against Seattle’s offensive line.
  • Force Sam Darnold to make patient decisions throughout long drives.
  • Protect the football and avoid giving Seattle short fields.

Keys to the Game for Seattle

  • Hold Kansas City’s running game below four yards per attempt.
  • Pressure Patrick Mahomes without relying on constant blitzes.
  • Establish a functional running game on early downs.
  • Find additional receiving production beyond Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
  • Prevent turnovers and negative plays from changing field position.
  • Use crowd noise to challenge Kansas City’s offensive communication.
  • Keep the score close enough for the defense to decide the fourth quarter.

Why Kansas City +2.5 Is the Best Bet

Kansas City is undefeated, owns a plus-57 scoring differential and has statistical advantages at quarterback, running back, offensive line, scoring offense, scoring defense and turnover margin. Receiving points with that profile creates the strongest value on the Week 7 slate.

The Chiefs have also demonstrated that they can win without relying entirely on Mahomes. Walker has given Kansas City a dominant rushing attack, while the defense has held three opponents to 10 points or fewer.

Seattle’s defense and home-field advantage deserve respect. The Seahawks could slow Kansas City and turn this into a low-possession game. The problem is that Seattle’s offense has not been dependable enough to justify laying points against an undefeated opponent.

Darnold has thrown seven interceptions, Seattle has allowed 16 sacks and its running game is averaging fewer than four yards per attempt. Those are dangerous weaknesses against a Kansas City team with a plus-five turnover margin.

The preferred number is Kansas City +2.5. The selection becomes even stronger if a +3 appears. Kansas City +1.5 or better remains playable, although the moneyline becomes the better option if the spread falls close to a pick’em.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Moneyline Pick

Moneyline Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +120

Kansas City is not merely receiving points. The Chiefs are also available at a plus-money price despite winning every game and allowing only 16.6 points per contest.

Seattle can win if its defense controls Walker and forces Mahomes into a mistake. However, Kansas City has more reliable answers on offense and the significant quarterback advantage. The Chiefs are the straight-up selection.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Total Pick

Total Pick: Under 42.5

Seattle’s defense is allowing only 237.3 yards per game and has held three opponents to 17 points or fewer. Kansas City has surrendered 16.6 points per contest and just limited the Chargers to two field goals.

Both teams have reasons to play patiently. Kansas City can lean on Walker rather than testing Seattle’s secondary on every possession. Seattle needs to protect Darnold and its offensive line by using a controlled approach built around the running game and shorter passes.

Turnovers are the primary threat to the under. A defensive score or a short field could quickly change the game. Without those plays, both teams may need to assemble long drives against disciplined defenses.

The under is playable at 42.5 or higher. At 41 or lower, the margin becomes too small and the better approach is to pass.

Best Betting Approach

Bet Selection SGP Grade Playable Range
Best Bet Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 A Chiefs +1.5 or better
Moneyline Kansas City Chiefs +120 B+ Plus money
Total Under 42.5 B+ 42.5 or higher
First-Half Lean Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 B Chiefs +1 or better
Pass Point on Spread Kansas City -2 or higher — Wait for a better number
Pass Point on Total Under 41 or lower — Too little margin

Chiefs vs. Seahawks Prediction

Seattle’s defense should prevent Kansas City from racing to an early two-score lead. The Seahawks can pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to remain patient, making this a close game through the first half.

The difference should appear as the game progresses. Kansas City can continue feeding Walker, use Kelce on critical third downs and rely on Mahomes to avoid the major mistake. Seattle has not shown that same level of offensive reliability.

Darnold will connect with Smith-Njigba for several productive plays, but Kansas City should prevent Seattle from consistently finishing drives with touchdowns. The Chiefs’ pressure packages eventually create a turnover or short-field opportunity.

Kansas City enters the fourth quarter with a narrow advantage, adds a late field goal and forces Seattle to attempt a final drive against a defense prepared to protect the boundary and pressure Darnold.

Predicted Score: Kansas City Chiefs 23, Seattle Seahawks 17

Final Chiefs vs. Seahawks Picks

Market Official Pick Confidence
Moneyline Kansas City Chiefs +120 Medium-High
Point Spread Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 High
Game Total Under 42.5 Medium-High
Best Bet Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 A
Projected Score Chiefs 23, Seahawks 17 —

Betting lines, weather forecasts and player availability can change before kickoff. Confirm the latest odds and final injury report before placing a wager. Sports Game Picks provides analysis for informational and entertainment purposes. Please wager responsibly.

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