Golden State visits Toyota Center at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Houston is favored by 5.5 and the total is 223.5. The Rockets have the stronger home and defensive numbers, but Golden State has enough perimeter scoring to make the spread interesting. See more NBA picks.
Golden State Can Stay Close Without Running at Every Opportunity
The Warriors are 8-3 and 2-2 on the road after beating New Orleans 138-87 Monday. That followed an overtime win over Orlando. Houston is a much tougher defensive test, so I’m more interested in how Golden State gets its shots than in whether it can repeat Monday’s scoring.
Golden State averages 120.4 points and allows 111.2. The Warriors can give Houston problems by making its defenders chase a shooter through one screen, then defend another action on the other side. Taking quick shots before Houston has to rotate would make the Rockets’ job easier.
Stephen Curry scored 41 against Orlando and 25 against New Orleans. His ability to draw defenders well beyond the arc creates room for cutters, even when he doesn’t take the shot. The early report listed Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis out, making lineup depth worth watching.
Houston Can Win by Making Each Possession Physical
The Rockets are 8-3 and 5-1 at home after beating Denver 110-100 Monday. They held Denver to 100 despite Murray scoring 38. That’s a good example of Houston controlling the rest of an offense without stopping its leading scorer.
Houston averages 115.5 points and allows 106.4. The Rockets can win by keeping Golden State out of transition and making the Warriors defend through Alperen Sengun at the other end. The critical part is finishing the rebound before Curry and the wings can run.
Kevin Durant scored 23 against Denver. Sengun had 17 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists against Minnesota last week. That combination gives Houston a way to score even if Golden State takes away its first interior look. Steven Adams was out in the early snapshot.
Warriors vs Rockets Team Comparison
| Metric | Golden State | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 8-3 |
| Road / home | 2-2 road | 5-1 home |
| Points scored / allowed per game | 120.4 / 111.2 | 115.5 / 106.4 |
| Monday result | Won 138-87 vs New Orleans | Won 110-100 vs Denver |
Warriors vs Rockets Head-to-Head
| Date | Result | Combined points |
|---|---|---|
| April 5, 2026 | Houston 117, Golden State 116 | 233 |
| March 5, 2026 | Golden State 115, Houston 113 (OT) | 228 |
| November 26, 2025 | Houston 104, Golden State 100 | 204 |
All three games were decided by four or fewer. That helps explain why I want Golden State with the points, though the totals show how much the scoring can swing.
Warriors vs Rockets Position-by-Position
| Position | Golden State | Houston | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Curry can stretch the first line of defense | Must stay attached without opening the roll | Golden State |
| SG | Off-ball screens can create separation | Can contest with length | Even |
| SF | Needs to contest without opening the baseline | Durant can score over a good contest | Houston |
| PF | Draymond Green can organize the help | Can attack the glass when Green rotates | Even |
| C | Must make Sengun work for deep catches | Sengun can create as a scorer or passer | Houston |
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Golden State +5.5
I pick Houston outright but want Golden State at +5.5. Curry can score against good coverage, and the Warriors have enough movement to make Houston defend for the full possession. Houston can cover if it controls the glass and makes Golden State play almost entirely against a set defense.
Total Pick: Under 223.5
Golden State’s scoring average gives the over a case, but Houston is allowing 106.4 per game and just held Denver to 100. I expect the Rockets to force longer possessions. A hot Curry stretch is the clearest threat. I project Houston 112, Golden State 108.
Final Picks: Golden State +5.5 and Under 223.5.
Completed November 10, 2026. Lines and player availability can change before tipoff.