Phoenix opens its season Wednesday at Moda Center against a Portland team with a different backcourt and bigger expectations. Ja Morant has arrived, Damian Lillard is back after missing last season, and the Trail Blazers have an opportunity to test a Phoenix frontcourt already dealing with injuries. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET. Portland is favored by 3.5 points, with our reference total at 233.0. I’m taking the Trail Blazers and looking under the total.
Suns vs Trail Blazers Game Information
| Game Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Matchup | Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers |
| Date | Wednesday, October 21, 2026 |
| Tipoff | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| Arena | Moda Center |
| Location | Portland, Oregon |
| Regional television | 3TV / Arizona’s Family Sports / KUNP |
| Spread used | Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 |
| Total used | 233.0 |
| Current records | Both teams 0-0 |
Total listings have differed across sources, including 232.5 and 233.0. This preview specifically uses Under 233.0.
Phoenix Needs to Keep Portland Away From the Rim
Phoenix finished 45-37 last season and went 20-21 on the road. The Suns won two of three regular-season meetings with Portland, with both victories coming at Moda Center. That gives the visitors a reasonable argument before getting to the roster changes. Their problem Wednesday is more immediate: defending the basket and finishing possessions with fewer healthy options at center. Phoenix cannot afford to bring extra help inside and then lose track of Portland’s next receiver.
The Suns allowed 111.1 points per game last season and forced 16.3 turnovers. That defensive disruption offers a way to compete even if the frontcourt is short. Phoenix needs to make Portland uncomfortable before the ball reaches the paint, rather than ask its available big men to clean up every mistake. Offensively, the Suns averaged 112.6 points. They should be selective about when to run. A careless early attempt could leave them defending Morant in space before their coverage is organized.
Devin Booker averaged 26.1 points and 6.0 assists in 64 games last season. His passing matters when Portland directs additional attention toward him. Phoenix needs Booker to find the next opportunity without letting possessions become a series of difficult jumpers. Mark Williams has been listed out with a shoulder injury, while Oso Ighodaro has carried a hip-related day-to-day designation. Luke Kennard has also appeared on preliminary listings with a knee issue. Williams’s absence, combined with uncertainty around Ighodaro, makes the defensive glass a particular concern.
Portland Has a Clear Interior Opportunity
Portland went 42-40 last season and finished 24-17 at home. The Trail Blazers reached the playoffs before losing to San Antonio in five games. Morant’s arrival and Lillard’s return change the offense considerably, so last season’s results only take this assessment so far. Portland now has more ways to initiate a possession. The challenge is making those options work together without turning every trip into a different guard’s individual attack.
The Trail Blazers averaged 46.0 rebounds per game last season, but also committed 17.3 turnovers. Those two figures identify the opportunity and the danger Wednesday. Portland can pressure Phoenix through rebounding and repeated interior attacks. Giving the ball away would allow the Suns to avoid defending some of those possessions altogether. The Blazers should make Phoenix’s available frontcourt work through screens, recover to the basket and then complete the possession with a rebound.
Deni Avdija averaged 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists across 66 games last season. Donovan Clingan added 12.1 points and 11.6 rebounds over 77 appearances, including 4.5 offensive rebounds per game. Avdija gives Portland another creator beyond its guards, while Clingan can punish Phoenix when the first shot misses. Morant joins after an injury-limited 20-game season in Memphis, and Lillard’s preseason return remains a small sample after his Achilles recovery. Shaedon Sharpe is out with a knee injury. Jrue Holiday has carried a hand-related day-to-day designation, making the final guard rotation worth checking.
Suns vs Trail Blazers Statistical Comparison
All figures below are from the 2025-26 regular season, before Portland added Morant and brought Lillard back into game action.
| Category | Phoenix Suns | Portland Trail Blazers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 45-37 | 42-40 |
| Points per game | 112.6 | 115.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 111.1 | 115.8 |
| Average scoring margin | +1.5 | -0.3 |
| Field-goal percentage | 45.5% | 45.3% |
| Rebounds per game | 43.1 | 46.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 14.5 | 17.3 |
| Average combined game score | 223.7 | 231.3 |
Where the Matchup Could Swing
| Matchup | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Clingan against Phoenix’s available centers | Offensive rebounds could extend possessions and put additional pressure on the Suns’ frontcourt. |
| Booker against Portland’s perimeter coverage | Phoenix needs its primary creator to turn defensive attention into good opportunities for teammates. |
| Portland’s ball security against Phoenix’s pressure | Turnovers could erase the home team’s rebounding and interior advantages. |
| Avdija attacking after the first action | His passing gives Portland another way to challenge a defense already adjusting to its guards. |
Scoring Comparison Against the Total
| Scoring Measure | Combined Points |
|---|---|
| Phoenix’s average game last season | 223.7 |
| Portland’s average game last season | 231.3 |
| Simple average of those figures | 227.5 |
| Betting total used | 233.0 |
| Our projected total | 227 |
The historical comparison provides context rather than a standalone forecast. Portland’s new backcourt and Phoenix’s frontcourt availability are important adjustments.
Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick: Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
I’m laying 3.5 with Portland. The Blazers have a specific way to win this matchup: attack the available Phoenix big men and make the Suns finish defensive possessions against Clingan. Avdija’s creation gives Portland another option if Phoenix prevents the initial guard penetration. Booker and the Suns’ pressure defense are the strongest reasons to hesitate. Phoenix can win this if it forces turnovers, makes Portland defend in transition and avoids getting buried by second chances. Holiday’s availability could also affect how well the Blazers contain Booker. I still prefer the home team’s interior opportunity at a spread below two possessions. My projection is Portland 116, Phoenix 111.
Total Pick: Under 233.0
The under is my stronger preference. Phoenix has reason to make this a controlled game, especially with its center rotation unsettled. The Suns should want Portland executing against an organized defense rather than finding Morant with open floor. Portland’s additional creators improve its offensive possibilities, but their timing and shared responsibilities still have to develop. The danger is the same interior matchup supporting the side pick: offensive rebounds, close finishes and foul trouble could give the Blazers efficient points even when their initial offense is ordinary. Booker catching fire would hurt as well. I still expect enough possessions requiring several actions to keep the combined score below 233.0. My projected total is 227.
Final Prediction
| Selection | Pick |
|---|---|
| Side | Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 |
| Total | Under 233.0 |
| Projected score | Portland 116, Phoenix 111 |
| Stronger preference | Under 233.0 |
Final Picks: Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 and Under 233.0.
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Completed October 20, 2026. Statistical comparisons use the 2025-26 regular season. Betting lines, injury designations and starting lineups may change before tipoff. Score projections are editorial estimates.