Golden State visits San Antonio at Frost Bank Center for a 9:30 p.m. ET NBA Cup tip on Prime Video. Both teams won their first West Group C game. San Antonio is favored by 13.5, with a total of 218.5. The Spurs deserve to be favored, but a team that can defend and rebound can stay within this number even if its offense is shorthanded.
Golden State’s Defense Has to Carry More of the Load
The Warriors are 8-4 and 2-3 on the road after losing 115-108 to Houston. They average 119.3 points and have a 56.6% effective field-goal percentage, but those figures include minutes from the lead guard who is out with an abdominal injury. I’m putting more weight on Golden State’s 111.5 points allowed and 30.0% offensive rebounding rate.
Golden State also has frontcourt absences. It needs to defend the first action well enough to avoid sending help from all over the floor. If San Antonio gets deep catches and makes the Warriors rotate out to shooters, the visitors could fall behind quickly.
San Antonio Has the Better Route to a Win
The Spurs are 10-2 and 4-2 at home. Their 124-119 win over Chicago was their 10th straight. San Antonio averages 119.2 and allows 108.0, giving it more ways to win than Golden State has with its current rotation.
San Antonio has backcourt and wing availability questions of its own. It can still attack the basket and control the glass, but pulling clear of a 13.5-point line requires sustained scoring. Golden State’s ability to take time off the clock and get an extra attempt here and there makes that margin less certain.
Team Comparison
| 2026–27 regular season | Golden State | San Antonio |
|---|---|---|
| Record / venue split | 8-4 / 2-3 away | 10-2 / 4-2 home |
| Points scored / allowed per game | 119.3 / 111.5 | 119.2 / 108.0 |
| Estimated pace | 102.0 | 102.2 |
| Effective field-goal percentage | 56.6% | 53.2% |
| Offensive rebound percentage | 30.0% | 29.2% |
Head-to-Head and Position Matchups
| Comparison | What to watch |
|---|---|
| Last meeting: April 1, 2026 | San Antonio 127, Golden State 113. That 14-point margin would beat Friday’s spread by half a point. |
| Point guards | Golden State needs clean possessions from its replacement handlers. |
| Shooting guards | Golden State needs movement to create open threes without its usual lead creator. |
| Small forwards | San Antonio’s wing availability affects how easily it can punish help. |
| Power forwards | Golden State needs help on the glass when its bigs contest at the rim. |
| Centers | San Antonio has the clearest advantage near the basket against Golden State’s thinner rotation. |
Warriors vs Spurs Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick: Golden State +13.5
I expect the Spurs to win, but I’ll take the points with a Warriors team that can defend and recover some of its misses. The obvious risk is a long stretch without reliable Golden State shot creation. At 13.5, a competitive third quarter and a few late baskets can be enough.
Total Pick: Under 218.5
Golden State’s season scoring average is less useful without its lead guard against a defense allowing 108.0 per game. San Antonio could take this over if it scores at will inside or gets easy points off turnovers. I expect the Warriors to make the Spurs work enough to keep the game in the mid-210s.
Final picks: San Antonio moneyline, Golden State +13.5 and Under 218.5. Projected score: Spurs 113, Warriors 102.
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Prepared November 12, 2026. Odds, injury designations and starting lineups may change.