Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Predictions for Friday October 23 2026

Dallas continues its opening road trip Friday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana, against a Pacers team coming home from a close win in New Orleans. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, with regional coverage through WTTV and DAZN-IND for Indiana and KFAA and MavsTV for Dallas. The Pacers are favored by 6.5 points, with the total used here at 236.5. I favor Indiana outright, but I’m taking Dallas with the points and looking over the total.

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Mavericks vs Pacers Game Information

Available spreads and totals vary by sportsbook. These selections are tied to Dallas +6.5 and Over 236.5.

Dallas Cannot Afford Another Quarter Like That

Dallas enters 0-1 overall and 0-1 on the road after Wednesday’s 128-110 loss at Houston. The Mavericks were outscored 38-12 in the second quarter, turning a competitive start into a game they spent the rest of the night chasing. Dallas scored 72 points after halftime, but the damage was already done. Friday’s first requirement is to avoid another extended stretch in which rushed possessions and defensive mistakes feed each other.

The Mavericks committed 21 turnovers, which Houston converted into 32 points. The Rockets also scored 29 fast-break points. Those are connected problems rather than separate concerns. Dallas needs better decisions with the ball and a quicker response when possession changes. Indiana can make a disorganized defense work, so simply asking the Mavericks to shoot better misses the more important issue. Their 110-point output showed some offensive capability, but protecting those possessions would give them a much better chance to stay inside this spread.

Cooper Flagg scored 32 points on 10-of-17 shooting and made 11 of 13 free throws against Houston. Kyrie Irving added 15 points while shooting six of nine. That gives Dallas two credible scoring options for keeping up with Indiana, although both had four turnovers. The NBA’s October 22, 4:45 p.m. ET report lists Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic, Dereck Lively II and Caleb Martin as out. Jett Howard is doubtful with right calf tightness and soreness. The missing frontcourt options make rebounding, defensive positioning and foul management important considerations.

Indiana Has Its Playmaker Back, but the Defense Needs Work

Indiana is 1-0 overall and 0-0 at home after beating New Orleans 123-120 on Wednesday. The Pacers scored 37 points in the fourth quarter to finish the comeback. That was a useful opening win, but there were difficult stretches along the way. Indiana was outscored 35-18 in the second quarter and had to repair a double-digit halftime deficit. The home opener offers a chance to establish more control rather than rely on another late scoring surge.

Scoring 123 points gives Indiana an encouraging offensive start. Allowing 120 is why laying 6.5 requires more thought. The Pacers have not yet shown they can consistently create the defensive separation needed to win comfortably. Against Dallas, they should try to force the same rushed decisions that Houston benefited from. They also need to finish possessions on the glass. New Orleans outrebounded Indiana 21-6 in the second quarter, which helped turn the game against the Pacers before halftime.

Pascal Siakam scored 30 points and grabbed eight rebounds in the opener. Tyrese Haliburton added 23 points and 12 assists in his first regular-season game since his Achilles injury. His return gives Indiana an established organizer rather than requiring every possession to become an individual scoring attempt. The official October 22 afternoon report lists T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy as out, with Aaron Nesmith questionable because of a left hamstring strain and Ben Sheppard questionable with left knee soreness. Those uncertainties matter for perimeter depth and the minutes when Haliburton rests.

Mavericks vs Pacers Opening-Game Comparison

Each team has played one regular-season game. The figures below describe those games against different opponents.

Scoring Comparison Against the Total

Two opening results do not establish a scoring trend. This comparison supplies context; the projection also depends on the expected matchup and available rotations.

Where This Game Gets Decided

Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Predictions

Spread Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5

I’ll take Dallas with the 6.5 points. Indiana is my projected winner, but allowing 120 points at New Orleans does not make me eager to lay a two-possession spread. Flagg produced 32 points efficiently in the opener, and Irving made six of nine shots. Dallas has a reasonable path to keeping the score close if it stops giving possessions away. That qualification matters: another 21-turnover performance could leave this pick in trouble well before the finish. The Mavericks’ frontcourt absences also give Indiana opportunities inside. I’m expecting some improvement in Dallas’ execution rather than a complete defensive turnaround. Indiana 122, Dallas 118 is the projection, which leaves the Mavericks inside +6.5.

Total Pick: Over 236.5

I lean over because both teams showed offensive capability alongside defensive problems that are relevant to this matchup. Dallas allowed 128 points while repeatedly giving Houston transition opportunities. Indiana scored 123 but conceded 120 and had a difficult stretch on the defensive glass. Haliburton’s 12 assists give the Pacers a useful foundation for creating shots, while Flagg and Irving can provide enough scoring for Dallas to contribute. The concern is that better ball security reduces easy baskets and turns this into a more deliberate game. Indiana’s uncertain wing availability could also affect its scoring depth. Our 240-point projection offers only a modest cushion above 236.5, so I would be less interested if the total moves several points higher.

Final Prediction

Final Picks: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 and Over 236.5.

Completed October 22, 2026. Betting lines, injury designations, starting lineups and other game information may change. Opening-game figures represent a one-game sample. Availability information reflects the NBA’s October 22, 4:45 p.m. ET report.