Baylor and Auburn open their 2026 seasons Saturday afternoon in one of the more intriguing Power Four matchups of Week 1. The Bears and Tigers will meet in the Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
This is the second consecutive season Baylor and Auburn have opened against one another. Auburn went into Waco last August and earned a 38-24 victory, controlling the line of scrimmage and piling up 307 rushing yards. Baylor produced 419 passing yards in that loss but managed only 64 yards on the ground. The rematch brings dramatically different personnel, particularly at quarterback, but Auburn’s success on the ground in the first meeting remains important when breaking down this matchup.
The current betting market lists Auburn as approximately a seven-point favorite, with some sportsbooks moving the Tigers to -7.5. Auburn is around -280 on the moneyline, while Baylor is approximately +240. The total is sitting around 59 to 59.5 points after opening as high as 60.5.
While this is our best bet of the week 1 college football season we have plenty of other great games we have covered and you can find them all at our free college football picks and previews.
Baylor vs Auburn Betting Odds
Moneyline: Baylor +240 / Auburn -278
Spread: Baylor +7 / Auburn -7
Total: 59.5
The market has already shown support for Auburn. The Tigers initially appeared around -6.5 before moving through the key number of seven at some sportsbooks. That movement matters because Auburn -7 remains considerably more attractive than laying -7.5 or eventually reaching -8.
The total has moved in the opposite direction. After opening around 60.5, the number has dropped into the 58.5-to-59.5 range depending on the sportsbook. At 59.5, there is still enough room to consider the Under.
Baylor Starts a New Chapter With DJ Lagway
Baylor is attempting to rebound from a disappointing 2025 season, and Dave Aranda’s team will look considerably different offensively. Florida transfer DJ Lagway takes over at quarterback and gives the Bears one of the most talented but unpredictable quarterbacks on the Week 1 board.
Lagway possesses the arm talent and athleticism to generate explosive plays, but turnovers remain the concern. He threw 14 interceptions last season and also had four fumbles. Those mistakes become especially important against an Auburn defense that should once again be the strength of the Tigers.
Baylor will also have a different look in the backfield. Dawson Pendergrass is expected to lead the running game after Bryson Washington transferred to Auburn. Pendergrass should receive help from Caden Knighten and Michael Turner, but establishing the run against Auburn is critical. Baylor managed only 64 rushing yards on 2.7 yards per carry against the Tigers last season.
The offensive line may ultimately determine whether Baylor can reverse that result. Kaden Sieracki provides experience at left tackle, while Texas transfer Nate Kibble is projected to start at right guard. Koltin Sieracki is expected to handle the center position, where Baylor enters the opener with less certainty.
Baylor also has an important availability concern at receiver. Taz Williams Jr. is expected to miss the game because of a collarbone injury. Tight end Tony Livingston has also been listed as questionable because of a knee issue. That potentially removes weapons from an offense already trying to develop chemistry with a new quarterback.
Auburn Begins the Alex Golesh Era
Auburn made one of the more interesting coaching changes of the offseason by hiring Alex Golesh, and the expectation is that the Tigers will immediately become much more aggressive offensively. Golesh arrives after building one of the country’s highest-scoring offenses at South Florida, and he brought quarterback Byrum Brown with him.
Brown is the centerpiece of Auburn’s offensive transformation. He threw for 3,158 yards and 28 touchdowns last season while adding another 14 touchdowns on the ground. His familiarity with Golesh’s system should significantly reduce the typical adjustment period associated with a new coaching staff.
The rushing matchup is particularly attractive for Auburn. Jeremiah Cobb returns after rushing for 969 yards while averaging 5.5 yards per carry last season. Auburn also added former Baylor running back Bryson Washington, giving Golesh another experienced option in the backfield.
That creates an obvious question for Baylor: has the defense improved enough to prevent another Auburn rushing explosion?
Last year’s answer was an emphatic no. Auburn ran for more than 300 yards in Waco and repeatedly created chunk plays on the ground. The quarterback run was especially damaging. Auburn now replaces that element with Brown, whose running ability is one of the defining characteristics of his game.
Auburn does have several offensive players carrying questionable designations entering game week, including running backs and receivers. Those situations deserve monitoring before kickoff, but the Tigers currently have enough depth that they do not change the primary handicap.
Auburn’s Defense Could Be the Difference
The excitement surrounding Golesh and Brown is understandable, but Auburn’s defense may actually provide the strongest reason to back the Tigers.
Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin remained at Auburn following the coaching change, providing valuable continuity on that side of the football. The Tigers finished 29th nationally in scoring defense last season despite frequently playing behind an offense that struggled to sustain possessions.
That creates an interesting combination entering 2026. Auburn potentially has a much more efficient offense while retaining the defensive structure that kept the Tigers competitive last season.
Lagway presents a legitimate challenge because he can attack defenses vertically and create outside the pocket. The problem is that his aggressive style can also create turnover opportunities. If Auburn generates pressure without consistently sending additional defenders, Lagway could be forced into exactly the types of difficult decisions that caused problems last season.
Baylor does not need Lagway to be spectacular to cover this spread. It does, however, need him to protect the football.
Can Baylor Stop Auburn’s Running Game?
This is the matchup that ultimately pushes the handicap toward Auburn.
The Tigers rushed for 307 yards in last year’s 38-24 victory. Auburn averaged well over six yards per rushing attempt and produced four rushing touchdowns, while Baylor never found a consistent answer for the quarterback run.
Brown may make the problem even more difficult.
Golesh’s offense forces defenses to account for the quarterback as a legitimate rushing threat, and Brown already understands the reads and timing required to operate the system. Baylor cannot simply focus on Cobb because doing so creates opportunities for Brown to attack the edges or exploit space created by defensive movement.
Auburn does not necessarily need another 300-yard rushing performance to cover. If the Tigers consistently remain ahead of the chains and avoid obvious passing situations, Baylor will have difficulty creating the negative plays necessary to get off the field.
That also becomes important late in the game. Auburn produced a 12-play touchdown drive in the fourth quarter of last year’s meeting that effectively prevented Baylor from mounting a comeback. The Tigers have the personnel to play the same type of possession football if they enter the fourth quarter protecting a lead.
Baylor vs Auburn Injury Report
Baylor enters the opener expecting to be without wide receiver Taz Williams Jr. because of a collarbone injury. Tight end Tony Livingston has been listed as questionable with a knee issue.
Auburn has several players carrying questionable designations entering game week. Running backs Tafari Meadows, Nykahi Davenport and Bryson Washington have appeared on injury reports, while receivers Brian Williams Jr., Erick Smith and Christian Neptune have also dealt with various issues. Tight end Jonathan Echols has also been listed as questionable.
Because several of Auburn’s situations remain uncertain rather than confirmed absences, bettors should check the final availability report before kickoff. The current handicap assumes Auburn’s core offensive pieces, including Byrum Brown and Jeremiah Cobb, are available.
Baylor vs Auburn Betting Analysis
There is a legitimate argument for Baylor at +7.5 because crossing the key number of seven changes the value considerably. Lagway has enough talent to generate explosive plays, and Baylor threw for more than 400 yards against Auburn last season. If the Bears improve their rushing efficiency and avoid turnovers, they can make this competitive.
The matchup still favors Auburn.
Golesh inherits a team whose biggest weakness last season was offensive production, and he brings a quarterback who already knows his system. Auburn therefore should not require half a season to understand its new offensive identity. Brown’s mobility combined with Cobb and Auburn’s other rushing options creates another difficult assignment for a Baylor defense that was overwhelmed on the ground in the previous meeting.
The neutral-site designation also shouldn’t be treated like a traditional 50-50 environment. Atlanta is substantially closer to Auburn than Waco, and Auburn should have considerable representation inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The total requires a little more caution. Golesh’s offensive history naturally creates Over interest, and last year’s matchup produced 62 points. However, Auburn’s defense remains capable of limiting Baylor, while the Bears are introducing a new quarterback and reconstructed offensive line against a quality defensive front.
At 59.5, the Under has enough margin. I would be considerably less interested if the market falls through 58.
Baylor vs Auburn Picks and Prediction
Pick: Auburn -7
Auburn -7 is the strongest position in this matchup and my College Football Best Bet for Week 1. The Tigers already demonstrated last season that they can control Baylor physically, and the offensive changes made during the offseason address the biggest weakness that prevented Auburn from becoming a more complete team.
Brown is the critical addition. Auburn now has a quarterback specifically selected to operate Golesh’s system rather than asking an existing quarterback room to learn an entirely new offense. His combination of experience, rushing ability and familiarity with the scheme gives Auburn a major advantage for an opening-week game.
Baylor has enough offensive talent to keep the game interesting, but the Bears have more uncertainty along the offensive line and must prove they can prevent another Auburn rushing clinic. If Auburn reaches approximately 200 rushing yards and wins the turnover battle, the Tigers should create enough separation to cover a touchdown.
Pick: Auburn -7
Pick: Under 59.5
The temptation is to automatically play the Over because Golesh’s South Florida offense averaged nearly 39 points per game last season and Auburn-Baylor produced 62 points in 2025. The current number, however, already incorporates much of that offensive optimism.
Auburn’s defense shouldn’t be overlooked. Durkin’s unit was one of the more reliable parts of the program last season, and continuity on that side gives Auburn an immediate advantage against a Baylor offense introducing Lagway and several new pieces.
There is also a realistic game script in which Auburn gets ahead and begins leaning heavily on Brown, Cobb and the rushing attack. Long possessions would simultaneously shorten the game and keep Baylor’s offense on the sideline. Something around 31-20 or 34-21 makes more sense than projecting another back-and-forth shootout.
Pick: Under 59.5
Baylor vs Auburn Best Bet
Auburn -7 is the best betting position in this game and the Sports Game Picks College Football Best Bet for Week 1. The number is important. I like Auburn considerably more at -7 than -7.5 because seven remains one of the most valuable margins in football betting.
Auburn’s rushing advantage, Brown’s familiarity with Golesh’s offense and the continuity of Durkin’s defense give the Tigers fewer major questions entering the opener. Baylor has the talent to make this competitive, particularly if Lagway plays efficiently, but the Bears need to prove their rebuilt offensive line can hold up and their defense can prevent Auburn from controlling the ground game again.
Last year’s 38-24 Auburn victory wasn’t simply the result of a few explosive plays. Auburn physically controlled the game, running for more than 300 yards. The Tigers now enter the rematch with an offensive system specifically designed to exploit the mobility of a quarterback like Brown.
Side Pick: Auburn -7
Total Pick: Under 59.5
Best Bet: Auburn -7
Projected Score: Auburn 34, Baylor 21
Player availability, injuries and betting odds can change before game time. The prediction assumes the primary players discussed above remain available as expected.
