Charlotte visits Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix at 9:00 p.m. ET, with regional coverage on WAXN and Arizona’s Family Sports. Phoenix is favored by 6.5, and the total is 212.5. Both teams are coming off wins, but Charlotte’s offensive numbers make me cautious about expecting another shootout. See more NBA picks.
Charlotte Needs to Carry Monday’s Shot Quality on the Road
The Hornets are 4-7 and 1-3 on the road after beating Cleveland 124-112 on Monday. They had scored only 80 against Boston on Friday. Phoenix needs to guard Charlotte’s shooters, but I’m not treating the Cleveland game as the Hornets’ new scoring baseline.
Charlotte averages 98.8 points and allows 110.4. It can keep the spread in play if it forces Phoenix to use the clock and limits second chances. The bigger concern is the other end: when the first shot is contested, Charlotte needs to find an open second option before Phoenix gets back into position.
Grayson Allen scored 27 and Naz Reid added 25 against Cleveland. Reid can pull a big away from the paint, which gives Allen more room to relocate and shoot. Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel and Dennis Schroder were listed out in the early snapshot, making Charlotte’s available perimeter rotation worth checking before tipoff.
Phoenix Has More Ways to Find a Late Basket
The Suns are 4-6 and 4-3 at home. They beat the Clippers 133-110 on Tuesday, a night after losing 122-96 to San Antonio. Thursday gives Phoenix a chance to build on the Clippers result without playing for a second night in a row.
Phoenix averages 112.8 points and allows 118.1. Its defense leaves Charlotte a real path to the cover, especially if the Hornets get open threes early. The Suns’ advantage is that they can still get usable offense when Charlotte takes away transition.
Jordan Goodwin scored 18 against the Clippers. Devin Booker had 32 against San Antonio and scored Phoenix’s final nine points in the 102-99 win over Houston last Saturday. Booker is the reason I trust the Suns to find late offense even if the scoring is closer to that Houston game than Tuesday’s.
Hornets vs Suns Team Comparison
| Metric | Charlotte | Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Road / home | 1-3 road | 4-3 home |
| Points scored / allowed | 98.8 / 110.4 | 112.8 / 118.1 |
| Most recent result | Won 124-112 vs Cleveland | Won 133-110 vs LA Clippers |
Hornets vs Suns Head-to-Head
| Date | Result | Total points |
|---|---|---|
| April 2, 2026 | Charlotte 127, Phoenix 107 | 234 |
| March 8, 2026 | Phoenix 111, Charlotte 99 | 210 |
They split these meetings, with the totals 24 points apart. March looks more like my Thursday projection, but Charlotte’s outside shooting is the reason I wouldn’t assume the under is comfortable.
Hornets vs Suns Position-by-Position
| Position | Charlotte | Phoenix | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Needs clean initiation with the guard rotation thin | Can use Booker as an initiator when needed | Phoenix |
| SG | Allen can punish late closeouts | Booker can create against a set defense | Phoenix |
| SF | Depth depends in part on Miller’s status | Can cut when Charlotte sends help at the ball | Phoenix if Miller remains out |
| PF | Reid’s shooting can pull a defender outside | Has to contest and still get back to rebound | Charlotte for spacing |
| C | Can keep the game close with second chances | Depth depends on Mark Williams’ availability | Even; watch availability |
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Phoenix -6.5
I’ll lay 6.5 because Phoenix has the better chance to find good shots after the first action breaks down. Charlotte can keep this inside the number if Allen and Reid carry over their shooting from Monday. I trust Booker more to sustain his production, particularly in the fourth quarter.
Total Pick: Under 212.5
This is a small lean. Phoenix’s defense makes the over a fair concern, and both teams went well past this total in their last games. I’m still taking the under because Charlotte averages under 100 and could be short on creators. My projection is Phoenix 110, Charlotte 101, so I wouldn’t chase the under at a lower number.
Final Picks: Phoenix -6.5 and Under 212.5.
Prepared November 11, 2026. Lines and player availability can change before tipoff.