The Knicks visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a 7 p.m. ET NBA Cup game on Prime Video. Both teams are looking for their first East Group B win. New York is favored by 7.5, with the total at 219.5. The Knicks have the better defense, and their work on the offensive glass gives them a way to build a lead even if the jump shots aren’t falling.
New York Can Win the Possession Battle
The Knicks are 6-5 and 2-2 on the road after losing 115-107 to Cleveland. New York allows 103.5 points per game and plays at an estimated 98.2 possessions per game. The slower pace helps the Knicks keep games manageable, but Cleveland showed that a team can still put up points if it gets clean looks before the defense settles.
New York grabs 32.2% of available offensive rebounds, compared with Indiana’s 20.5%. That matters because the Pacers have the better effective field-goal percentage. If Indiana shoots a little better on the first attempt, New York can make up the difference by earning a second one.
Indiana Needs Early Offense
The Pacers are 4-8 and 1-5 at home. They beat Washington 114-101 on Wednesday, giving them a much better result than their 125-122 loss at Dallas on Monday. Indiana averages 111.6 points, slightly more than New York, but allows 114.0. It needs to keep that defensive number down to make the shooting edge count.
Indiana is still missing its lead point guard. The remaining handlers can help by pushing off clean rebounds and getting into the first action quickly. Starting possessions late against a set Knicks defense would make it harder to recreate Wednesday’s scoring.
Team Comparison
| 2026–27 regular season | New York | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Record / venue split | 6-5 / 2-2 away | 4-8 / 1-5 home |
| Points scored / allowed per game | 110.3 / 103.5 | 111.6 / 114.0 |
| Estimated pace | 98.2 | 102.7 |
| Effective field-goal percentage | 51.9% | 54.0% |
| Offensive rebound percentage | 32.2% | 20.5% |
Head-to-Head and Position Matchups
| Comparison | What to watch |
|---|---|
| Last meeting: March 17, 2026 | New York 136, Indiana 110. Last season’s margin gives context; Friday’s personnel and pace are more useful. |
| Point guards | Indiana needs quick decisions before New York can set its defense. |
| Shooting guards | Indiana can punish help if its catch-and-shoot chances come early. |
| Small forwards | New York’s wings can shrink driving lanes; Indiana needs weak-side cuts to occupy them. |
| Power forwards | Indiana must box out before looking to run. |
| Centers | New York can turn missed shots into another half-court possession. |
Knicks vs Pacers Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick: New York -7.5
I like New York to cover because its rebounding can offset Indiana’s better shooting efficiency. The risk is laying more than two possessions with an offense averaging 110.3. I’m willing to do it against a team that has won once in six home games and may have trouble getting clean shots late in possessions.
Total Pick: Under 219.5
Indiana can threaten the under if it gets repeated chances in transition. I expect New York to slow enough of those possessions down and keep the Pacers close to the 103.5 points it has allowed per game. That leaves room for the Knicks to cover without needing a high-scoring night.
Final picks: New York moneyline, New York -7.5 and Under 219.5. Projected score: Knicks 113, Pacers 103.
More NBA picks and predictions.
Prepared November 12, 2026. Odds, injury designations and starting lineups may change.