Samsung Lions vs KT Wiz Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Samsung nearly erased an eight-run deficit Tuesday. Close still counts as a loss, and the Lions now need a road win to keep KT from taking control of the Korean Series. Game 2 is Wednesday, November 4, at Suwon KT Wiz Park, with first pitch scheduled for 6:30 p.m. KST / 4:30 a.m. EST. MBC carries the game in Korea.

KT leads the best-of-seven series 1–0. A published market listing has the Wiz favored at -144, Samsung at +120 and the total at 8.5. Those prices were not independently confirmed at a sportsbook. My selections are Samsung at +120 or better and Under 8.5 at -110 or better.

This is an outdoor game. The hourly forecast around first pitch calls for approximately 57°F, easterly winds near 4 mph, gusts around 7–9 mph and a precipitation chance below 10%. Temperatures should fall toward 54°F by 9 p.m. That looks like a manageable playing window. I would not assign a wind advantage without confirming its direction relative to the field.

Game Information

Starting Pitchers

Chris Paddack vs Ko Young-pyo

Statistics below cover the completed 2026 regular season.

Paddack gives Samsung a chance to avoid another early hole. His regular-season walk total stands out. Eleven walks in 76⅓ innings means opponents generally had to earn their baserunners, which matters against a productive KT offense.

He also responded well after a rough opening postseason start. Paddack allowed five runs over 4⅔ innings in Playoff Game 1, then held KIA to one run over 5⅓ innings in Game 4. He threw 94 and 99 pitches in those outings. Wednesday comes after four days of rest, following a three-day turnaround before his previous appearance.

Ko has the much larger season sample. His 183 strikeouts against 22 walks give KT excellent reason to trust him, and he went 3–1 with a 2.25 ERA in four regular-season starts against Samsung. That is the strongest argument against backing the visitors.

There is uncertainty on his side, too. His last official appearance was October 11. The extended break provides recovery time, but it leaves a question about how quickly he will find his command against a lineup that cannot afford to waste many opportunities.

Paddack threw six scoreless innings in his only regular-season meeting with KT. That supports Samsung’s case without settling the matchup. One successful start is useful evidence, but the Lions still need him to handle this assignment in a different ballpark.

Samsung Needs Its Starter to Keep the Game Manageable

Samsung finished the regular season 83–58–3, including 40–29–2 away. Tuesday’s 8–7 defeat put the Lions behind in the series, but their late offense kept the game competitive after an ugly beginning. The more practical goal Wednesday is avoiding a deficit that requires another major comeback.

The Lions scored 806 regular-season runs, averaging 5.60 per game, and batted .273 with 140 home runs. Their pitching staff posted a 4.31 ERA. There is enough offense here to support an underdog selection, particularly when Samsung can start a pitcher who limits walks.

The difficult part is producing against Ko. Samsung cannot assume Tuesday’s late scoring will carry into the next game. I want the Lions to take advantage of early mistakes while the starter settles in. Letting him work efficient innings would leave them facing another difficult late-game assignment.

KT Has the Lead, but the Opener Exposed a Concern

KT finished 90–49–5 and went 45–24–2 at home. The Wiz opened the championship round with a victory, which is what matters most. Still, an 8–0 advantage turning into an 8–7 finish gives them something to address immediately.

The regular-season offense batted .286 with a .367 on-base percentage and scored 825 runs. KT also finished with a 4.14 team ERA. Those numbers explain why the Wiz deserve respect as the favorite. They can create scoring opportunities consistently, and their season-long pitching was slightly better than Samsung’s.

Wednesday’s concern is how much support the starter needs to provide. The relief staff allowed Samsung back into Game 1. That does not prove the same thing will happen again, but it makes me reluctant to pay a substantial favorite price against a capable opposing starter. KT’s cleanest route is another productive opening followed by considerably quieter late innings.

Bullpen and Availability Outlook

Game 1 provides a warning for both sides. Samsung allowed eight runs, while KT nearly surrendered an eight-run lead. Neither club gets an off day before Wednesday.

I would not describe either bullpen as fully rested or unavailable without individual workload and recovery information. The immediate betting implication is simpler: useful innings from the starters would reduce exposure to the part of Tuesday’s game that became unpredictable.

Official Game 2 batting orders and complete game-day injury and relief restrictions were not independently confirmed. Material changes would require another look at the selections.

Weather and Playing Conditions

The cool evening offers modest support for the under. The light wind does not justify a major adjustment, and the retrieved forecast shows limited rain risk. Starting pitching carries much more weight in this total than the weather does.

Samsung Lions vs KT Wiz Picks and Prediction

Side Pick: Samsung Lions Moneyline +120 or Better — Conditional Best Bet

I’ll take Samsung at the underdog price. Paddack’s 0.96 WHIP and limited walks give the Lions a credible route to a close game, and his latest postseason outing was a useful rebound. Ko’s success against Samsung is the clear objection, especially with KT playing at home. I am not dismissing that matchup advantage. I simply see enough starting-pitching quality on the other side to prefer the potential return at +120. That price requires a win rate above roughly 45.5% to break even; it is a price calculation, not a claimed model probability. Pass if Samsung is shorter than +120.

Total Pick: Under 8.5 Runs at -110 or Better

I prefer the under because these starters have the command to keep innings from growing through free baserunners. Ko’s opponent results and Paddack’s strong regular-season WHIP support a more controlled game than the opener. The counterargument is obvious: both offenses are productive, and the bullpens supplied little comfort Tuesday. An early exit from either starter would weaken this selection substantially. Even with that risk, I project seven runs and want Under 8.5 at -110 or better. I would pass at a lower total.

Final Prediction

I expect a closer game from the beginning. Samsung has enough pitching to stay within reach and enough offense to turn a few opportunities into a series-tying win.

Projected Final Score: Samsung Lions 4, KT Wiz 3

Final Picks: Samsung Lions moneyline +120 or better — CONDITIONAL BEST BET; Under 8.5 runs at -110 or better.

Completed November 3, 2026, for the November 4 game in Korean Standard Time. Starting pitchers, betting lines, lineups, injuries, relief availability, weather and scheduling may change. Reported market prices were not independently confirmed at a sportsbook.