Denver visits FedExForum at 8:00 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass, subject to local restrictions. Denver is favored by 4.5 and the total is 228.5. I give Memphis a narrow outright edge after its road win in Toronto. See the full NBA slate.
Denver Needs a Second Scorer to Keep Memphis From Loading Up
The Nuggets are 5-4 after losing 110-100 at Houston Monday. They had won 114-102 over Indiana in Mexico City. The Houston game was a reminder that a productive night from one creator doesn’t guarantee Denver will get enough from the rest of the lineup.
Denver averages 113.6 points and allows 112.8. The Nuggets can control Memphis’ pace by getting the ball to Nikola Jokic early, making the Grizzlies guard cutters, and keeping the weak side occupied. Bad shots that leave Denver scrambling back would make it hard to impose that pace.
Jamal Murray scored 38 against Houston, and Jokic had 19 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists against Indiana. Memphis can’t let both dictate their preferred matchups. Denver has the inside edge, but it needs the rest of the lineup to turn that attention into points.
Memphis Can Make Denver Defend Before It Gets Organized
The Grizzlies are 7-3 and 2-3 at home after beating Toronto 118-102 Monday. They had scored just 97 against Oklahoma City on Friday. Toronto was a better illustration of how Memphis can look when it gets into its offense before the defense gets set.
Memphis averages 117.9 points and allows 110.8. Denver can slow the first action through Jokic, so the Grizzlies need to finish rebounds and push after stops. If Memphis is forced to walk it up repeatedly, Denver’s half-court advantage becomes more important.
Ty Jerome scored 27 in Toronto and 40 in the overtime loss to New Orleans earlier in the month. His pull-up shot can make Denver step out, but I’m more interested in whether he finds the next pass when Denver sends help.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies Team Comparison
| Metric | Denver | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Road / home | 3-2 as designated visitor, including Mexico City | 2-3 home |
| Points scored / allowed per game | 113.6 / 112.8 | 117.9 / 110.8 |
| Monday result | Lost 110-100 at Houston | Won 118-102 at Toronto |
Nuggets vs Grizzlies Head-to-Head
| Date | Result | Combined points |
|---|---|---|
| April 8, 2026 | Denver 136, Memphis 119 | 255 |
| March 18, 2026 | Memphis 125, Denver 118 | 243 |
Both teams scored at least 118 in each game. That supports the possibility of an over, though the current defensive numbers make me project a lower score than either meeting.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies Position-by-Position
| Position | Denver | Memphis | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Murray can score or pass out of the two-man game | Jerome can punish deep coverage | Denver |
| SG | Needs clean looks after Jokic draws help | Cedric Coward can attack a closeout | Memphis |
| SF | Needs to close out without giving up the baseline | Can run off long rebounds | Memphis in transition |
| PF | Can cut behind help at the elbow | Must help inside without losing the cutter | Even |
| C | Jokic can run the offense from the middle | Needs early help and clean defensive rebounds | Denver |
Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Memphis +4.5
I’ll take the points with Memphis. Denver can win if Jokic controls the half court, but the Grizzlies have scored more consistently and have a good route to easy points off stops. I lean Memphis outright, with +4.5 offering room if Denver wins a close one.
Total Pick: Over 228.5
Memphis can get into the high teens if it dictates the pace, and Denver can answer through Jokic and Murray. The under is in play if Denver turns this into a slow half-court game, so this is a smaller lean. I project Memphis 117, Denver 114.
Final Picks: Memphis +4.5 and Over 228.5.
Completed November 10, 2026. Lines and player availability can change before tipoff.