Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 28 2026

Denver and New Orleans meet again Wednesday after needing overtime to settle Saturday’s game. The Nuggets won that meeting, then struggled defensively against Golden State on Monday. Tipoff at Smoothie King Center is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET. Denver is favored on the road, but New Orleans has been competitive despite its winless start. Our selections use New Orleans +5.5 and Over 238.5.

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Nuggets vs Pelicans Game Information

Sportsbooks differed between New Orleans +4.5 and +5.5, with totals of 238.5 and 239.5 also available. These selections specifically use +5.5 and Over 238.5.

Denver Can Score, but the Defense Has Left Too Much Work

Denver is 1-2 overall and 0-1 on the road after Monday’s 134-114 home loss to Golden State. Its only victory came against this New Orleans team, 141-135 in overtime Saturday. That establishes Denver can win the matchup. It also shows why expecting comfortable separation would be a stretch. The Nuggets needed an extra period to finish the job on their own floor.

The Nuggets have averaged 113.0 points while allowing 121.7 through three games, calculated from their completed scores. The offense has produced very different results, while the defense has struggled to control the last two opponents. Denver needs to contain the first drive without repeatedly giving away clean perimeter opportunities. Better shooting would help, but it cannot be the entire answer when opponents are finding comfortable chances.

Jamal Murray scored 42 points in the first meeting, and Nikola Jokic supplied 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. Their creation remains the strongest reason to favor Denver outright. The supporting rotation is less settled. Cameron Johnson is doubtful with an ankle injury, while Julian Strawther and Spencer Jones are out. Alpha Diallo is also reported out for personal reasons. Those absences leave fewer options when Denver needs a different defensive look.

New Orleans Needs a Better Finish, Not a Completely Different Game

New Orleans is 0-3 overall and 0-1 at home, but its losses have come by three points, one point and six points in overtime. The Pelicans have been close enough to win. That does not excuse the mistakes late in games, although it makes the record a poor reason by itself to dismiss them as a home underdog. They have also been off since Saturday, giving them time to prepare for the rematch.

The Pelicans have averaged 124.7 points and allowed 128.0 through three games. Saturday’s overtime inflates both figures, but the larger concern is still obvious: New Orleans has not defended well enough to protect its scoring. The Pelicans need to finish possessions and avoid unnecessary help that opens another scorer. Against Jokic, repeated defensive confusion can turn a reasonable first effort into an easy basket somewhere else.

Trey Murphy III scored 26 points in Denver, while Dejounte Murray added 22 points and six assists. That production gives New Orleans ways to compete beyond asking Zion Williamson to create every important shot. Yves Missi is out with a knee injury, reducing the available interior options against Jokic. Jordan Poole is probable with an illness. His availability would provide another guard option, but New Orleans still needs its main creators to make better decisions down the stretch.

Nuggets vs Pelicans Statistical Comparison

Scoring averages use completed 2026-27 regular-season games through October 26. Both teams’ figures include Saturday’s overtime meeting.

Where This Game Gets Decided

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions

Spread Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +5.5

I’m taking New Orleans +5.5 while projecting Denver to win narrowly. The Pelicans have already shown they can compete with this opponent, and Denver’s latest defensive performance does not support assuming the rematch will be easier for the favorite. New Orleans can get useful offense from several players and should not need another extraordinary individual performance just to stay involved. The concern is Jokic. With Missi unavailable, Denver has a clear route to efficient interior possessions, and the Pelicans have not handled late-game situations well. Still, getting more than five points at home offers reasonable protection in a game I project Denver winning 124-120. At +4.5, the selection becomes thinner.

Total Pick: Over 238.5

I’m looking over 238.5 because neither defense has shown enough consistency to expect a clean, controlled game. Denver has allowed opponents to find comfortable scoring opportunities, while New Orleans has struggled to turn its own offense into wins because it cannot get enough stops. Jokic’s matchup inside and the Pelicans’ ability to attack Denver’s rotations give both teams workable scoring routes. The objection is that Saturday’s final score included overtime; using 276 combined points as a normal expectation would be misleading. A slower rematch or a poor shooting night could hold this below the number. My projection reaches 244 without requiring overtime, making the over playable at the listed total.

Final Prediction

Final Picks: New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 and Over 238.5.

Prepared October 27, 2026, for the October 28 matchup. Statistics include completed games through October 26 and reflect small samples. Injury designations, betting lines and starting lineups may change. Selections apply to the listed numbers.