Free MLB Picks For August 20, 2026
Looking for today’s MLB picks? Below, you’ll find our Major League Baseball predictions for today’s slate, including moneyline picks, run line picks, total picks, best bets, and quick game-by-game analysis. We update this page daily with the latest MLB betting picks and track our running record throughout the season.
Today’s MLB Picks — August 20, 2026
Thursday’s MLB schedule contains nine games, beginning with St. Louis–Cincinnati at 12:40 p.m. ET and ending with Los Angeles–Houston at 8:10 p.m. ET. Current market totals range from 7.5 to 9.0.
| Game | Moneyline Pick | Run Line Pick | Total Pick | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cardinals ML | Cardinals +1.5 | Under 9.0 | No |
| San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians | Guardians ML | Guardians -1.5 | Under 7.5 | No |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Rays ML | Rays -1.5 | Over 7.5 | No |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox | Braves ML | Braves +1.5 | Under 8.5 | No |
| Athletics vs Kansas City Royals | Royals ML | Royals -1.5 | Under 8.5 | No |
| Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers | Mariners ML | Mariners +1.5 | Over 8.0 | No |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Yankees ML | Yankees -1.5 | Under 8.0 | No |
| Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers | Rangers ML | Rangers -1.5 | Under 7.5 | No |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Astros ML | Astros -1.5 | Under 8.5 | ✅ Yes |
The numbers above are based on the market available during this assessment. Among the favourites, Houston and Cleveland have the cleanest combination of starting-pitching superiority and favourable matchup structure. Kansas City is another strong candidate, while St. Louis and Seattle are my two underdog/value sides.
MLB Best Bet of the Day
Best Bet: Houston Astros -1.5
Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez enters for Los Angeles at 3-5 with a 7.17 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 55 strikeouts through 59 innings. Houston counters with Peter Lambert, who is 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 117 strikeouts over 118.2 innings. That is easily one of the largest statistical pitching gaps on Thursday’s card. Houston is also currently priced around -187 on the moneyline with the total sitting at 8.5.
Rather than laying close to -190, I want the extra value associated with Houston -1.5. Los Angeles is being asked to stay within a run despite beginning the game with a substantial run-prevention disadvantage. Houston should have opportunities to create separation before this game ever reaches the late innings.
The total is more interesting on the Under than it first appears. Houston doesn’t need seven or eight runs for the run line to cash if its pitching advantage translates properly. Something in the neighbourhood of 5-2 gets both positions home.
Projected score: Astros 5, Angels 2
Official Best Bet: Houston Astros -1.5
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Pick
Picks: Cardinals ML | Cardinals +1.5 | Under 9.0
Starting Pitchers: Michael McGreevy enters at 5-9 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 91 strikeouts across 132 innings. Brady Singer is 5-11 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through 125.2 innings. Cincinnati is essentially a pick’em favourite at -102, which makes the superior statistical pitching profile available at virtually even money.
St. Louis is my side because this price doesn’t properly separate the two starting profiles. A difference of more than a run in ERA combined with the lower WHIP makes the Cardinals attractive in a game where neither club is being asked to overcome a significant market premium.
Nine is also enough for me to shade Under. Cincinnati’s park always adds risk to an Under, so I wouldn’t chase this downward. At 9.0, though, there is enough protection for an ordinary 5-3 or 4-3 type of game.
Projected score: Cardinals 5, Reds 3
San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Pick
Picks: Guardians ML | Guardians -1.5 | Under 7.5
Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams is 11-7 with a 3.74 ERA, outstanding 1.08 WHIP and 190 strikeouts in 149 innings for Cleveland. Landen Roupp enters at 7-12 with a 4.31 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 128 strikeouts through 129.1 innings. Cleveland is approximately -189 with a total of 7.5.
Cleveland owns the stronger starting profile in essentially every category that matters here. The strikeout difference is particularly important because it gives the Guardians a better chance of escaping situations without allowing balls in play to decide them. At nearly -190, however, the moneyline isn’t particularly attractive from a price standpoint, which pushes me toward -1.5.
The Under is aggressive at only 7.5, but the Cleveland starter is capable of controlling this matchup for six or seven innings. The preferred game script is Cleveland building a modest lead rather than needing a high-scoring performance.
Projected score: Guardians 5, Giants 2
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick
Picks: Rays ML | Rays -1.5 | Over 7.5
Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber enters at 4-2 but carries a 4.99 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 48.2 innings. Ian Seymour is 9-3 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 115 strikeouts across 96.1 innings. Tampa Bay is currently around -169 with a total of 7.5.
Tampa Bay is the stronger side largely because its starting profile has been considerably more stable. A 1.13 WHIP versus 1.56 is a meaningful separation, and the strikeout production gives the Rays more ways to control innings without depending entirely on defensive execution.
I disagree with the low total more than I love the Tampa Bay run line. Neither starting ERA screams dominant pitching, and Toronto’s side of this matchup creates enough potential baserunners to give Tampa Bay a chance at four or five runs by itself. At 7.5, I’ll play Over.
Projected score: Rays 5, Blue Jays 4
Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox Pick
Picks: Braves ML | Braves +1.5 | Under 8.5
Starting Pitchers: Grant Holmes enters 7-5 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 117.2 innings. Anthony Kay is 9-5 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 121.1 innings. Chicago is essentially a pick’em at -104 and the total is 8.5.
This is arguably Thursday’s most evenly matched starting-pitching matchup. There’s almost nothing separating the WHIPs, and the ERAs are reasonably close as well. That makes laying a meaningful price with either team unattractive, but Atlanta at approximately even money gets my slight preference.
The better bet may actually be Under 8.5. Neither starter presents the kind of profile that makes me immediately anticipate a short outing, and this feels more like a game decided 4-3 than one requiring five or six runs from each side.
Projected score: Braves 4, White Sox 3
Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Pick
Picks: Royals ML | Royals -1.5 | Under 8.5
Starting Pitchers: Gage Jump enters 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 85 strikeouts in 78 innings. Randy Dobnak has been excellent in a smaller workload, going 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 41.2 innings. Kansas City is currently around -139 with a total of 8.5.
Kansas City is priced much more reasonably than Cleveland or Houston despite having a significant starting-pitching advantage. The 1.73 ERA probably shouldn’t be treated as the pitcher’s true talent level indefinitely, but he doesn’t need to maintain that number for Kansas City to own the better side of this matchup.
The Royals -1.5 carries additional variance, which keeps it just below best-bet status. Under 8.5 also makes sense if Kansas City gets the kind of five-plus-inning performance the pitching numbers suggest.
Projected score: Royals 5, Athletics 2
Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick
Picks: Mariners ML | Mariners +1.5 | Over 8.0
Starting Pitchers: George Kirby enters at 8-9 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 136.2 innings. Robert Gasser is 3-5 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 73.1 innings. Milwaukee is currently about -129 with a total of 8.0.
This is the favourite I’m fading. Milwaukee deserves respect at home, but Seattle has the starting-pitching profile I prefer and doesn’t need to win this game often enough to justify being treated as a significant underdog. The safer position is Seattle +1.5, but I see enough outright-win potential to take the moneyline as well.
I also lean Over 8.0. Milwaukee’s starter has been more hittable from a run-prevention perspective, and eight provides push protection if we land exactly on a 5-3 result. This is not the matchup where I want to automatically follow Milwaukee simply because of its overall reputation.
Projected score: Mariners 5, Brewers 4
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Pick
Picks: Yankees ML | Yankees -1.5 | Under 8.0
Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole enters 6-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 92 strikeouts through 86.2 innings. Kyle Bradish is 7-11 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 124 strikeouts across 133 innings. Baltimore is listed around +104, making New York a modest road favourite, with the total sitting at 8.0.
New York gets my moneyline pick because the starting advantage is meaningful without requiring a massive favourite price. The WHIP difference is particularly appealing; fewer free baserunners generally becomes increasingly important in divisional games where scoring opportunities can be limited.
I’ll pair that with Under 8.0. Baltimore’s starter is capable enough to keep New York from turning this into a blowout immediately, while the Yankees have the starting profile to suppress Baltimore. The run line is more aggressive than the moneyline, but 5-2 is very much within the reasonable range.
Projected score: Yankees 5, Orioles 2
Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers Pick
Picks: Rangers ML | Rangers -1.5 | Under 7.5
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Alvarez enters 2-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 75 innings. Jacob deGrom is 8-8 with a 3.95 ERA but owns a stronger 1.17 WHIP and 147 strikeouts through 120.2 innings. Texas is currently around -164 and the market total is only 7.5.
The ERA comparison doesn’t make Texas look like an obvious favourite, but the deeper indicators make the Rangers more appealing. The substantial strikeout difference and lower WHIP indicate much greater control over individual plate appearances and innings.
Under 7.5 requires accepting a thin number, but this game has one of Thursday’s better pitching-oriented structures. Texas is my preferred side, with -1.5 reserved for bettors comfortable accepting significantly more variance to avoid laying the moneyline price.
Projected score: Rangers 4, Nationals 2
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros Pick
Picks: Astros ML | Astros -1.5 | Under 8.5
Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez is 3-5 with a 7.17 ERA and 1.59 WHIP through 59 innings, while Peter Lambert comes in 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 117 strikeouts over 118.2 innings. Houston is approximately -187 with the total at 8.5.
This is the matchup where I don’t want to get cute. Houston has a dramatic starting-pitching advantage, home field and a matchup that gives it a realistic chance to establish control during the first half of the game. Paying -187 isn’t appealing, so the -1.5 becomes the preferred way to attack it.
The Under 8.5 is secondary to the side. Houston could do most of the scoring and still keep this Under if the pitching advantage holds. A 5-2 or 6-2 result fits the handicap perfectly.
Projected score: Astros 5, Angels 2
Confidence Ranking
1. Houston Astros -1.5 — Best Bet
2. Cleveland Guardians -1.5
3. New York Yankees ML
4. Kansas City Royals ML
5. St. Louis Cardinals ML
The most interesting value play is Seattle ML, while Atlanta–Chicago is the game I would keep smallest because the starting-pitching matchup is so closely balanced.
MLB Picks Record
| Category | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall MLB Picks (Best Bet Not Included) | 836-815-12 |
| Moneyline Picks | 300-258-0 |
| Run Line Picks | 275-283-0 |
| Total Picks | 261-274-12 |
| MLB Best Bets | 20-22-0 |
How to Bet MLB Games
MLB betting usually focuses on three main markets: the moneyline, run line, and game total.
A moneyline bet is a pick on which team will win the game outright. This is often the simplest way to bet MLB games, especially when one team has a clear starting pitching, bullpen, or offensive advantage.
A run line bet is similar to a spread. In baseball, this usually means backing a favorite to win by at least two runs or taking an underdog with a 1.5-run cushion. Run lines can create better betting value, but they also carry more risk than a straight moneyline pick.
A total bet focuses on the combined number of runs scored by both teams. If you expect strong offense, shaky pitching, or favorable hitting conditions, the over may offer value. If you expect strong pitching, reliable bullpens, or a lower-scoring matchup, the under may be the better option.
What We Consider When Making MLB Picks
Our MLB predictions are based on several key factors, including starting pitching, bullpen reliability, team offense, recent form, home and road splits, matchup history, injuries when available, weather conditions, ballpark factors, and betting market value.
Because MLB odds can move quickly once lineups, pitching changes, and weather updates become available, numbers may change throughout the day. Always compare the current line before placing a bet.
MLB Betting Tips
MLB betting can be streaky, so it is important to avoid overreacting to one game. Even the best teams lose as heavy favorites, and underdogs can have value when the betting market overcorrects.
For most bettors, the best approach is to keep bet sizes consistent, avoid chasing losses, and track results over time. The goal is not to win every single pick. The goal is to find long-term value across the full MLB season.
Responsible Gambling Reminder
Sports betting should be treated as entertainment, not guaranteed income. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and never chase losses. If betting stops being fun or starts creating stress, take a break and seek support.
MLB Picks FAQ
Are these MLB picks updated daily?
Yes. This page is updated regularly with today’s MLB picks, including moneyline picks, run line picks, total picks, and our best bet of the day.
Do you cover every MLB game?
Yes. When a full MLB slate is available, we aim to cover every game with a moneyline pick, run line pick, total pick, and brief analysis.
What is the best MLB bet today?
Our top-rated pick is listed in the “MLB Best Bet of the Day” section near the top of the page.
Do you track MLB betting results?
Yes. We track our running MLB picks record, including overall picks, moneyline picks, run line picks, totals, best bets, and recent performance.
What is the best way to bet on MLB baseball?
The most common MLB bets are moneyline, run line, and totals. New bettors may want to start with moneyline picks before moving into run lines and totals.
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