Free MLB Picks For October 4, 2026
Looking for today’s MLB picks? Below, you’ll find our Major League Baseball predictions for today’s slate, including moneyline picks, run line picks, total picks, best bets, and quick game-by-game analysis. We update this page daily with the latest MLB betting picks and track our running record throughout the season.
Today’s MLB Picks — October 4, 2026
Sunday’s MLB slate features two National League Division Series Game 2 matchups. Milwaukee and Los Angeles lead their series 1–0, while the American League teams have the day off. Both games air on FS1.
| Game | Moneyline Pick | Run Line Pick | Total Pick | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres at Brewers | MIL -164 | SD +1.5 | Under 7 | — |
| Braves at Dodgers | LAD -150 | LAD -1.5 | Under 7 | Dodgers ML ✅ |
Reference lines: Milwaukee -164, San Diego +135, total 7; Los Angeles -150, Atlanta +125, total 7. Run-line selections are leans without verified prices. Sources show differing markets, so confirm the number before betting.
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
4:00 PM ET | American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin | FS1
NLDS Game 2 — Milwaukee leads 1–0
Starting Pitchers
Michael King starts for San Diego after finishing the regular season 12–10 with a 3.21 ERA. Milwaukee counters with Logan Henderson, who went 11–3 with a 2.47 ERA. This is a more competitive pitching matchup than the opener: King gives San Diego a credible chance to work deep into the game, while Henderson’s stronger season-long run prevention supports Milwaukee’s favorite status.
Milwaukee won the opener 3–2, and I expect another competitive game. The Brewers’ regular-season offense had the stronger foundation, averaging 5.14 runs with a .341 on-base percentage, compared with San Diego’s approximately 4.5 runs and .319 OBP. Milwaukee’s ability to put runners aboard gives it more ways to score without needing a home run. Against a quality opposing starter, those additional opportunities could decide a close contest.
San Diego’s improved starting matchup makes the Padres +1.5 appealing as a run-line lean. Their starter allowed just one run over 5⅔ innings in a Milwaukee appearance during the regular season, demonstrating a path to keeping this offense contained. That does not guarantee another strong outing, but it supports a tighter projection than yesterday’s pitching comparison suggested.
I favor Milwaukee outright, with San Diego staying within a run. Under 7 is the preferred total: both starters can limit scoring, and seven runs would return the stake rather than lose. The main threat is an early exit by either starter that forces the bullpen to cover several innings.
Moneyline Pick: Brewers -164
Run Line Pick: Padres +1.5
Total Pick: Under 7
Projected Score: Brewers 3, Padres 2
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
8:00 PM ET | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California | FS1
NLDS Game 2 — Los Angeles leads 1–0
Starting Pitchers
Blake Snell is confirmed for Los Angeles after finishing 4–1 with a 1.90 ERA. Atlanta’s assignment remains unconfirmed. Chris Sale is a possibility, but the Braves planned to assess how he feels Sunday after his Wild Card workload before deciding whether to start him in Game 2 or save him for Game 3. That decision is the largest remaining variable in this matchup.
Los Angeles won Saturday’s opener 5–3, using three home runs to support a strong starting performance. Atlanta stayed scoreless through the early innings before producing late offense, but today it faces another challenging left-handed matchup. The Dodgers deliberately placed left-handed starters at the front of this series against a Braves lineup that struggled against lefties during the regular season.
The Dodgers also have the stronger team-level on-base profile: their .338 regular-season OBP exceeded Atlanta’s .309, while they averaged 4.94 runs compared with the Braves’ 4.6. That supports Los Angeles creating more sustained scoring opportunities. At -150, the Dodgers are considerably less expensive than yesterday’s -225 reference price, making the moneyline my preferred side.
Under 7 is a secondary lean built around Los Angeles limiting Atlanta’s offense. The unresolved Braves pitching plan adds risk, especially if Atlanta needs extensive bullpen coverage. I project a Dodgers victory with six combined runs, but would reassess the total if Atlanta announces a substantially weaker pitching arrangement.
Moneyline Pick: Dodgers -150
Run Line Pick: Dodgers -1.5
Total Pick: Under 7
Projected Score: Dodgers 4, Braves 2
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline -150
The Dodgers’ confirmed starting-pitching quality, favorable handedness matchup and stronger on-base production make them my preferred selection. The -150 price requires a 60% win rate to break even; my assessment gives Los Angeles a modest edge above that threshold.
I prefer the moneyline because it also covers a one-run win. Atlanta’s final starting assignment could narrow the advantage, so Dodgers -150 is the best bet at the quoted price, pending that announcement.
Completed October 4, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information may change.
MLB Picks Record
| Category | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall MLB Picks (Best Bet Not Included) | 1607-1546-35 |
| Moneyline Picks | 605-482-0 |
| Run Line Picks | 532-548-0 |
| Total Picks | 502-553-35 |
| MLB Best Bets | 40-45-0 |
How to Bet MLB Games
MLB betting usually focuses on three main markets: the moneyline, run line, and game total.
A moneyline bet is a pick on which team will win the game outright. This is often the simplest way to bet MLB games, especially when one team has a clear starting pitching, bullpen, or offensive advantage.
A run line bet is similar to a spread. In baseball, this usually means backing a favorite to win by at least two runs or taking an underdog with a 1.5-run cushion. Run lines can create better betting value, but they also carry more risk than a straight moneyline pick.
A total bet focuses on the combined number of runs scored by both teams. If you expect strong offense, shaky pitching, or favorable hitting conditions, the over may offer value. If you expect strong pitching, reliable bullpens, or a lower-scoring matchup, the under may be the better option.
What We Consider When Making MLB Picks
Our MLB predictions are based on several key factors, including starting pitching, bullpen reliability, team offense, recent form, home and road splits, matchup history, injuries when available, weather conditions, ballpark factors, and betting market value.
Because MLB odds can move quickly once lineups, pitching changes, and weather updates become available, numbers may change throughout the day. Always compare the current line before placing a bet.
MLB Betting Tips
MLB betting can be streaky, so it is important to avoid overreacting to one game. Even the best teams lose as heavy favorites, and underdogs can have value when the betting market overcorrects.
For most bettors, the best approach is to keep bet sizes consistent, avoid chasing losses, and track results over time. The goal is not to win every single pick. The goal is to find long-term value across the full MLB season.
Responsible Gambling Reminder
Sports betting should be treated as entertainment, not guaranteed income. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and never chase losses. If betting stops being fun or starts creating stress, take a break and seek support.
MLB Picks FAQ
Are these MLB picks updated daily?
Yes. This page is updated regularly with today’s MLB picks, including moneyline picks, run line picks, total picks, and our best bet of the day.
Do you cover every MLB game?
Yes. When a full MLB slate is available, we aim to cover every game with a moneyline pick, run line pick, total pick, and brief analysis.
What is the best MLB bet today?
Our top-rated pick is listed in the “MLB Best Bet of the Day” section near the top of the page.
Do you track MLB betting results?
Yes. We track our running MLB picks record, including overall picks, moneyline picks, run line picks, totals, best bets, and recent performance.
What is the best way to bet on MLB baseball?
The most common MLB bets are moneyline, run line, and totals. New bettors may want to start with moneyline picks before moving into run lines and totals.
If you want even more great baseball coverage, then you are in the right place. You can check out our free baseball picks.
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