Free MLB Picks For August 16, 2026
Looking for today’s MLB picks? Below, you’ll find our Major League Baseball predictions for today’s slate, including moneyline picks, run line picks, total picks, best bets, and quick game-by-game analysis. We update this page daily with the latest MLB betting picks and track our running record throughout the season.
Today’s MLB Picks — August 17, 2026
Monday gives us an unusual 11-game MLB card, with the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds playing a day-night doubleheader. The strongest pitching edges on my board belong to Philadelphia, Atlanta and Kansas City, while Dodgers-Rockies is the obvious high-variance Coors Field matchup.
| Game | Moneyline Pick | Run Line Pick | Total Pick | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — Game 1 | Reds ML | Cardinals +1.5 | Over 8.0 | No |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays | Rays ML | Orioles +1.5 | Under 7.5 | No |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Phillies ML | Phillies -1.5 | Under 8.5 | ✅ Yes |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — Game 2 | Cardinals ML | Cardinals +1.5 | Under 9.0 | No |
| Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Tigers ML | Tigers -1.5 | Under 8.0 | No |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox | Red Sox ML | Red Sox -1.5 | Over 9.0 | No |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | Padres ML | Padres +1.5 | Under 8.0 | No |
| Athletics vs Kansas City Royals | Royals ML | Royals -1.5 | Under 9.5 | No |
| Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins | Braves ML | Braves -1.5 | Under 8.5 | No |
| Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs | Cubs ML | Cubs -1.5 | Under 8.5 | No |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Dodgers ML | Dodgers -1.5 | Over 11.0 | No |
The posted markets vary slightly from book to book. Philadelphia is sitting in roughly the -245 moneyline range with the run line around -110, Kansas City is around -180, Chicago is around -160 to -170, and Los Angeles is approximately -245 with a Coors Field total around 11.
The Cardinals-Reds doubleheader is the least settled portion of the board, so those totals should be treated as playable target numbers rather than guaranteed consensus lines.
MLB Best Bet of the Day
Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
This is where I want to attack Monday’s board. Cristopher Sánchez enters 15-4 with a 2.54 ERA, while Miami counters with Janson Junk at 6-7 with a 4.41 ERA. Philadelphia is 67-58, Miami is 64-61, and the pitching matchup is significantly more one-sided than those relatively similar team records suggest. The market understands the advantage—the Phillies are roughly -245 on the moneyline—which makes laying -1.5 much more attractive than paying the huge straight-up price.
Sánchez has the profile I want when laying a run line: he can take innings away from the opponent and reduce the number of chances Miami receives to spring an upset. Junk doesn’t have to pitch poorly for Philadelphia to cover; he merely has to be outperformed by Sánchez. Philadelphia winning something like 5-2 or 6-2 is well within the realistic range.
Projected score: Phillies 5, Marlins 2
Official Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — Game 1 Pick
Picks: Reds ML | Cardinals +1.5 | Over 8.0
The first game of Monday’s doubleheader is projected to feature Quinn Mathews against Chase Petty. St. Louis enters the series at approximately 62-61 while Cincinnati is around 59-63, but the Reds are being priced as the favourite in the available early market. Cincinnati also gets the advantage of playing both games at Great American Ball Park.
I’m splitting the side markets here. Cincinnati is my straight-up winner, but I don’t see enough separation to trust the Reds -1.5. St. Louis has won seven of its last ten entering the series and is coming off consecutive wins over Chicago, so Cardinals +1.5 makes more sense. With uncertainty surrounding how deep the starters work in the opening half of a doubleheader, Over 8.0 is the more attractive total.
Projected score: Reds 5, Cardinals 4
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick
Picks: Rays ML | Orioles +1.5 | Under 7.5
This may be one of Monday’s best pure pitching matchups. Shane McClanahan enters 9-6 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, while Brandon Young is 9-3 with a 3.33 ERA. Tampa Bay has been installed around -156 to -160 despite Baltimore’s impressive weekend against the Rays.
Baltimore’s 10-2 win Sunday was its third consecutive victory in this series, so laying -1.5 with Tampa Bay would be asking for trouble. McClanahan nevertheless gives the Rays the pitching profile I prefer to stop the bleeding and avoid the four-game sweep. I’ll take Tampa Bay straight up, Baltimore +1.5 as the better run-line position and Under 7.5 in what should look very different from Sunday’s blowout.
Projected score: Rays 4, Orioles 3
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick
Picks: Phillies ML | Phillies -1.5 | Under 8.5
Janson Junk’s 4.41 ERA isn’t disastrous, but putting him opposite Sánchez creates one of the most substantial pitching disadvantages on Monday. Sánchez has gone 15-4 with a 2.54 ERA, and Miami has to deal with him on the road in Philadelphia.
I’d rather lay -1.5 than pay approximately -245 on Philadelphia’s moneyline. Miami could have difficulty getting beyond two or three runs against Sánchez, making Under 8.5 playable as well. If Philadelphia reaches four or five, it should be enough.
Projected score: Phillies 5, Marlins 2
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — Game 2 Pick
Picks: Cardinals ML | Cardinals +1.5 | Under 9.0
The pitching matchup shifts strongly toward St. Louis in the nightcap. Andre Pallante enters 12-6 with a 3.46 ERA, while Rhett Lowder is 4-8 with a 5.15 ERA. That is enough for me to flip sides after favouring Cincinnati in Game 1.
There is another handicap that matters in doubleheaders: bullpen usage from Game 1. That prevents me from getting overly aggressive with either the run line or total before seeing how the opener unfolds. But based strictly on the projected starters, St. Louis ML is my preferred position, Cardinals +1.5 provides additional insurance, and Under 9.0 is playable if that number appears.
Projected score: Cardinals 5, Reds 3
Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
Picks: Tigers ML | Tigers -1.5 | Under 8.0
Framber Valdez goes for Detroit against Carmen Mlodzinski. Valdez enters 7-8 with a 4.26 ERA, while Mlodzinski is 6-5 with a 3.79 ERA. That hardly screams huge Detroit pitching advantage, which is why I’m cautious despite the Tigers being a small road favourite.
Valdez has shown better form recently than his full-season ERA suggests, including consecutive strong outings earlier this month. Pittsburgh just scored eight runs against Boston on Sunday, but repeating that type of offensive performance against a quality left-hander is another matter. Detroit gets my side lean, while Under 8.0 may actually be the cleaner handicap.
Projected score: Tigers 4, Pirates 2
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Pick
Picks: Red Sox ML | Red Sox -1.5 | Over 9.0
This game is more complicated because Boston is expected to use an opener/bulk arrangement involving Alec Gamboa and Brayan Bello, while Arizona lists Mitch Bratt. Boston is nevertheless sitting around a -145 to -150 favourite with the total around nine.
Rather than pretending we have a traditional starter-versus-starter handicap, I’m looking at the complete pitching setup and the venue. Boston deserves the side preference at Fenway, but this is one of the games where I prefer offence to pitching. Arizona just scored three Sunday while Boston allowed eight to Pittsburgh, and neither pitching plan gives me enough confidence to chase an under.
Projected score: Red Sox 6, Diamondbacks 4
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Pick
Picks: Padres ML | Padres +1.5 | Under 8.0
Here’s one of my favourite underdog spots. The Mets are roughly -120 with Nolan McLean starting, and McLean deserves respect at 8-8 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Walker Buehler has been considerably shakier for San Diego at 7-5 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
But you’re being asked to lay a price with a Mets team sitting around 56-69 against a Padres club at 67-58. That’s enough for me to take the better overall club as the underdog despite New York owning the starting-pitching advantage. Padres +1.5 is even stronger, while Under 8.0 is playable because McLean has the ability to keep New York in a low-scoring game.
Projected score: Padres 4, Mets 3
Athletics vs Kansas City Royals Pick
Picks: Royals ML | Royals -1.5 | Under 9.5
Michael Wacha provides one of Monday’s largest starter edges. He enters 5-8 with a 3.46 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 150⅔ innings, while Mason Barnett comes in 1-3 with a 6.16 ERA. Kansas City is therefore understandably around a -180 favourite.
The Athletics can absolutely score enough to make this uncomfortable, but Barnett’s 6-plus ERA is difficult to ignore. Kansas City doesn’t need Wacha to dominate—six respectable innings could create enough separation. Royals -1.5 offers considerably better value than laying the heavy moneyline, and Under 9.5 still leaves reasonable breathing room.
Projected score: Royals 6, Athletics 3
Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Pick
Picks: Braves ML | Braves -1.5 | Under 8.5
This is another clear pitching advantage. Martín Pérez enters 8-6 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while Bailey Ober is 7-4 with a 4.64 ERA. Atlanta also brings the much stronger overall record at 74-50 compared with Minnesota’s 60-65.
That combination makes Atlanta one of the stronger sides on the card. The Braves are playable on the moneyline, but I’m also willing to lay -1.5 because Pérez gives them a chance to build an early lead without asking the offence for seven or eight runs. Under 8.5 gets the nod because I’m expecting Minnesota’s contribution to remain modest.
Projected score: Braves 5, Twins 2
Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs Pick
Picks: Cubs ML | Cubs -1.5 | Under 8.5
The Crosstown Classic starts with Shota Imanaga opposite Luis Castillo. Imanaga enters around 8-9 with a 3.74 ERA, while Castillo is 4-9 with a 4.96 ERA. The Cubs are 72-53 and 36-26 at home, compared with a 65-58 White Sox club that is 28-34 away.
The South Siders are good enough that I don’t love laying a large moneyline price, but Imanaga gives the Cubs the starter edge at Wrigley. Cubs ML is the safer play, while -1.5 becomes more appealing for bettors trying to avoid approximately -160 to -170 juice. Under 8.5 is my total unless the wind conditions turn heavily hitter-friendly.
Projected score: Cubs 5, White Sox 2
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Pick
Picks: Dodgers ML | Dodgers -1.5 | Over 11.0
Now we get the chaos game. Blake Snell has only nine MLB innings this season, producing a 0-1 record and 5.00 ERA, although he struck out 10 over six strong innings in his latest outing. Colorado counters with Tomoyuki Sugano, who is 12-5 with a 4.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and has allowed 24 home runs in 113⅔ innings.
The Dodgers are 74-51 and Colorado is 50-74, which explains Los Angeles sitting around -245 with the run line heavily juiced. I don’t want that moneyline price. Dodgers -1.5 is the better way to play the favourite, while Over 11.0 makes sense at Coors because neither pitching situation makes me particularly interested in betting an under at this venue.
Projected score: Dodgers 8, Rockies 5
Monday’s Strongest MLB Plays
If I were cutting the entire slate down rather than betting every selection, my card would centre around:
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 — BEST BET
- Atlanta Braves ML
- Kansas City Royals -1.5
- San Diego Padres +1.5
- Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8.0
Best Bet Final Call
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Projected score: Phillies 5, Marlins 2
The Cardinals-Reds doubleheader is the portion of Monday’s slate I’d handle most carefully. Game 2 can change considerably depending on bullpen usage in the opener. For the rest of the card, Philadelphia -1.5 stands above the field as the combination of pitching advantage, reasonable run-line price and projected scoring separation that I like most on August 17.
MLB Picks Record
| Category | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall MLB Picks (Best Bet Not Included) | 766-762-12 |
| Moneyline Picks | 273-244-0 |
| Run Line Picks | 250-267-0 |
| Total Picks | 243-251-12 |
| MLB Best Bets | 19-20-0 |
How to Bet MLB Games
MLB betting usually focuses on three main markets: the moneyline, run line, and game total.
A moneyline bet is a pick on which team will win the game outright. This is often the simplest way to bet MLB games, especially when one team has a clear starting pitching, bullpen, or offensive advantage.
A run line bet is similar to a spread. In baseball, this usually means backing a favorite to win by at least two runs or taking an underdog with a 1.5-run cushion. Run lines can create better betting value, but they also carry more risk than a straight moneyline pick.
A total bet focuses on the combined number of runs scored by both teams. If you expect strong offense, shaky pitching, or favorable hitting conditions, the over may offer value. If you expect strong pitching, reliable bullpens, or a lower-scoring matchup, the under may be the better option.
What We Consider When Making MLB Picks
Our MLB predictions are based on several key factors, including starting pitching, bullpen reliability, team offense, recent form, home and road splits, matchup history, injuries when available, weather conditions, ballpark factors, and betting market value.
Because MLB odds can move quickly once lineups, pitching changes, and weather updates become available, numbers may change throughout the day. Always compare the current line before placing a bet.
MLB Betting Tips
MLB betting can be streaky, so it is important to avoid overreacting to one game. Even the best teams lose as heavy favorites, and underdogs can have value when the betting market overcorrects.
For most bettors, the best approach is to keep bet sizes consistent, avoid chasing losses, and track results over time. The goal is not to win every single pick. The goal is to find long-term value across the full MLB season.
Responsible Gambling Reminder
Sports betting should be treated as entertainment, not guaranteed income. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and never chase losses. If betting stops being fun or starts creating stress, take a break and seek support.
MLB Picks FAQ
Are these MLB picks updated daily?
Yes. This page is updated regularly with today’s MLB picks, including moneyline picks, run line picks, total picks, and our best bet of the day.
Do you cover every MLB game?
Yes. When a full MLB slate is available, we aim to cover every game with a moneyline pick, run line pick, total pick, and brief analysis.
What is the best MLB bet today?
Our top-rated pick is listed in the “MLB Best Bet of the Day” section near the top of the page.
Do you track MLB betting results?
Yes. We track our running MLB picks record, including overall picks, moneyline picks, run line picks, totals, best bets, and recent performance.
What is the best way to bet on MLB baseball?
The most common MLB bets are moneyline, run line, and totals. New bettors may want to start with moneyline picks before moving into run lines and totals.
If you want even more great baseball coverage, then you are in the right place. You can check out our free baseball picks.
You can also check out our free KBO picks.
If you want to check out Japanese baseball coverage, you can look at our free NPB picks.
For more official baseball news, please check out the Major League Baseball website at MLB.com
