Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 21 2026

Kawhi Leonard begins his second run with Toronto on Wednesday when the Raptors host the Chicago Bulls at Scotiabank Arena. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, with regional coverage on Sportsnet and CHSN. Chicago has added Norman Powell, but injuries in the frontcourt create an immediate problem against Toronto’s size and passing. The Raptors are favored by 9.5 points, with the total at 236.5. I’m laying the points with Toronto and looking under the total.

Bulls vs Raptors Game Information

Chicago Needs Its Offense to Protect Its Defense

Chicago finished 31-51 last season, including 13-28 on the road. Toronto swept the three-game season series, winning each meeting by at least nine points. The Bulls have changed personnel since those losses, but Wednesday still presents a familiar challenge: producing enough good possessions to keep a stronger opponent from taking control. Chicago cannot afford a stretch of rushed jumpers and loose passes that lets Toronto build a lead without having to work through its half-court offense.

The Bulls averaged 116.3 points last season, so scoring wasn’t their biggest problem. They allowed 121.5 and committed 15.3 turnovers per game. That combination leaves very little room for an ordinary shooting night. Chicago needs to make Toronto defend multiple actions, then get back when the possession ends. Trying to answer every Raptors basket with a quick shot could leave the Bulls defending downhill all evening. Their best offensive possession might be one that produces a clean attempt and gives everyone time to establish defensive position afterward.

Josh Giddey averaged 17.0 points, 9.1 assists and 8.3 rebounds in 54 games last season. His ability to rebound and immediately organize the offense should help Powell, who averaged 21.7 points and shot 38.0% from three for Miami. That gives Chicago a useful combination of passing and shooting. The interior situation is less encouraging. Preliminary listings have Nic Claxton out with a hamstring injury, while Zach Collins, Tobe Awaka and Isaac Okoro have carried day-to-day designations. Several limitations at once would leave Chicago with fewer answers when Toronto attacks the lane.

Toronto Can Make Chicago Defend More Than One Threat

Toronto went 46-36 last season and finished 24-17 at home. The Raptors pushed Cleveland to seven games in the first round before their season ended. Now Leonard gives them another established option when the first action gets stopped. His return is the opening-night headline, but the more practical question is how much harder he makes it for Chicago to decide where to send help.

The Raptors shot 48.2% from the field and averaged 29.5 assists last season. Defensively, they allowed 111.8 points per game and forced 16.1 turnovers. That is the matchup advantage I keep coming back to. Toronto can move the ball until Chicago’s coverage breaks, while its defense has a chance to create the easier possessions that a large favorite needs. The Raptors should be patient enough to attack the available frontcourt rather than turn this into a contest over who can make more difficult perimeter shots.

Leonard averaged 27.9 points for the Clippers last season. Scottie Barnes contributed 18.1 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists for Toronto across 80 games. Barnes doesn’t need to stand around waiting for Leonard to finish a possession. His cutting and passing can make Chicago defend the space around the primary action, particularly when a second defender comes toward the ball. Nate Bittle has appeared on preliminary listings with a foot issue. The final rotation still needs confirmation, but Toronto’s main advantage is having several ways to challenge Chicago’s defensive decisions.

Bulls vs Raptors Statistical Comparison

All figures below are from the 2025-26 regular season, before the offseason roster changes.

Where This Matchup Gets Difficult for Chicago

Scoring Comparison Against the Total

The historical comparison is context, not a predictive model. New personnel, availability and game pace can materially change the scoring environment.

Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors Picks and Predictions

Spread Pick: Toronto Raptors -9.5

I’ll lay 9.5 with Toronto. It is a substantial number for an opener, but Chicago’s frontcourt concerns give the Raptors a specific way to create separation. Toronto can attack the lane, make the Bulls bring help and keep passing until somebody gets a favorable opportunity. Its defensive pressure also matches up well with an opponent that struggled to protect possessions last season. Chicago’s counterargument is Powell making shots while Giddey keeps the offense organized enough to prevent a damaging run. A late Bulls scoring burst against Toronto’s reserves is another concern with this spread. I still expect the Raptors to generate enough stops and interior advantages to win by double digits. My projection is Toronto 121, Chicago 109.

Total Pick: Under 236.5

Toronto’s ability to make Chicago work is the starting point for the under. Powell improves the Bulls’ shot-making, but that doesn’t guarantee clean possessions against a defense that can pressure the ball and challenge the next pass. I also expect Toronto to spend time attacking matchups rather than immediately firing at every opportunity. Chicago’s defensive problems are the obvious danger: the Raptors could score efficiently enough to carry a large share of this total themselves. Turnovers leading directly to baskets would hurt, too. Even allowing Toronto a productive offensive night, I don’t have Chicago doing enough to push this past 236.5. The projected 230 points leave room for some uneven stretches without requiring either team to go cold for an entire half.

Final Prediction

Final Picks: Toronto Raptors -9.5 and Under 236.5.

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Completed October 20, 2026. Statistical comparisons use the 2025-26 regular season. Betting lines, injury designations and starting lineups may change before tipoff. Score projections are editorial estimates.