Looking for this week’s NFL picks? Below you’ll find our National Football League predictions, including moneyline picks, against-the-spread picks, totals, our best bet of the week, and game-by-game analysis. We update this page throughout the NFL preseason, regular season, and playoffs while tracking our running betting record.
This Week’s NFL Picks (Preseason Week 3)
| Game | Moneyline Pick | ATS Pick | Total Pick | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | Buffalo -1.5 | Under 35.5 | No |
| New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns | New England Patriots | New England -2.5 | Over 34.5 | No |
| San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders | Las Vegas Raiders | Las Vegas -1.5 | Over 38.5 | No |
| Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 | Over 39.5 | No |
| Washington Commanders vs Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore -3.5 | Under 35.5 | No |
| Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins | Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta -4.5 | Under 36.5 | No |
| Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers | Houston Texans | Houston -1.5 | Over 36.5 | No |
| New York Giants vs New York Jets | New York Giants | New York Giants -2.5 | Under 36.5 | No |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Jacksonville Jaguars | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay -1.5 | Under 35.5 | No |
| Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers | Arizona Cardinals | Arizona -2.5 | Over 37.5 | No |
| Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs | Seattle Seahawks | Seattle +1.5 | Under 36.5 | No |
| Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia -2.5 | Under 36.5 | No |
| New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | Dallas -2.5 | Under 38.5 | No |
| Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos | Denver -6.5 | Over 39.5 | ✅ Yes |
| Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis -3.5 | Under 36.5 | No |
| Chicago Bears vs Tennessee Titans | Tennessee Titans | Tennessee -3.5 | Under 37.5 | No |
Lines used for this update are the current Week 3 numbers available at the time of writing. Preseason markets can move substantially when quarterback rotations and starter availability become clearer, so bettors should check the number again before kickoff.
NFL Best Bet of the Week
Best Bet: Denver Broncos -6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings
Denver is laying the biggest number on the Week 3 board, which ordinarily would make me cautious in a preseason game. In this case, however, the matchup supports the aggressive position. Denver has shown the better offensive ceiling during the preseason and gets the finale at home, where its depth and quarterback play should give it an advantage once the game moves beyond the opening units.
Minnesota’s offensive performance against Baltimore raised enough concerns to make the Vikings difficult to back even with nearly a touchdown. Week 3 is about finding the team capable of continuing to execute once the bottom half of the roster takes over, and Denver looks better equipped to do that. I’ll lay the 6.5 with the Broncos as the NFL preseason Best Bet of the Week.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Buffalo, the ATS pick is Buffalo -1.5, and the total pick is Under 35.5. Buffalo only has to clear a very short home number, and that is preferable to taking Pittsburgh simply for the points. The total is already low, but a preseason finale featuring conservative play-calling and extended work for reserve offenses makes the under appealing. Buffalo winning something in the neighborhood of 20-13 would cash both positions.
New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is New England, the ATS pick is New England -2.5, and the total pick is Over 34.5. New England’s offensive depth has been encouraging enough to trust the Patriots at less than a field goal, while Cleveland’s quarterback competition gives the Browns enough offensive upside to contribute to the scoring. With the market requiring only five touchdowns to get beyond 34.5, I’ll take New England and buck the preseason-under tendency with the over.
San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Las Vegas, the ATS pick is Las Vegas -1.5, and the total pick is Over 38.5. San Francisco’s reserve offense has demonstrated that it can move the football, but Las Vegas gets the slight edge at home with a number that essentially asks the Raiders to win the game. This is also one of the higher totals of the week, yet both teams have enough offensive depth to turn the second half into a scoring contest.
Los Angeles Rams vs Los Angeles Chargers Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is the Los Angeles Chargers, the ATS pick is Chargers -4.5, and the total pick is Over 39.5. This is one of the few Week 3 games where I’m comfortable laying more than a field goal because the Chargers’ preseason approach gives them an opportunity to maintain offensive pressure deep into the game. The Rams have enough quarterback depth to contribute points themselves, making the over preferable despite 39.5 being one of the largest totals on the slate.
Washington Commanders vs Baltimore Ravens Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Baltimore, the ATS pick is Baltimore -3.5, and the total pick is Under 35.5. Baltimore’s roster depth and long-running preseason competitiveness remain difficult to ignore, particularly at home. Washington should have opportunities early, but the Ravens have the advantage once both clubs get deeper into their rotations. Baltimore’s defense can also keep this from becoming a shootout, giving us a Ravens-and-under combination.
Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Atlanta, the ATS pick is Atlanta -4.5, and the total pick is Under 36.5. The market making Atlanta a sizeable road favourite tells us plenty about the expected rotations, and I’m willing to follow that signal. Miami getting more than a field goal at home is tempting, but Atlanta has the better chance of controlling the game with its reserve units. At 36.5, I also lean toward a slower game that stays in the low-to-mid 30s.
Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Houston, the ATS pick is Houston -1.5, and the total pick is Over 36.5. Carolina showed some offensive life in its previous preseason appearance, which is precisely why I’m more interested in the over than fading the Panthers entirely. Houston, however, is being asked to cover little more than the margin of a straight-up victory. I’ll trust the Texans to have the stronger four-quarter performance in a game that has a chance to reach the low 40s.
New York Giants vs New York Jets Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is the New York Giants, the ATS pick is Giants -2.5, and the total pick is Under 36.5. The Giants are the side I trust more offensively, but this annual matchup has all the ingredients of a grinding preseason finale once the initial quarterback rotations are finished. Taking the Giants below the key number of three is reasonable, while 36.5 provides enough room for the under to survive a game played into the low 30s.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Tampa Bay, the ATS pick is Tampa Bay -1.5, and the total pick is Under 35.5. Jacksonville’s previous preseason performance did little to inspire confidence in backing the Jaguars, even as a small home underdog. Tampa Bay essentially needs to win the game to cover, making the Buccaneers the preferred side. Neither offense needs to be especially aggressive in the finale, so I’ll pair Tampa Bay with the under.
Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Arizona, the ATS pick is Arizona -2.5, and the total pick is Over 37.5. Arizona being favoured on the road is notable and suggests the Cardinals should have the stronger rotation for this particular preseason matchup. Green Bay has shown enough offensive ability to make taking the under uncomfortable, though. Arizona can cover while the Packers still do their share of the scoring, giving us Cardinals -2.5 and over 37.5.
Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Seattle, the ATS pick is Seattle +1.5, and the total pick is Under 36.5. This is one of my favourite underdog positions of the week because Seattle does not need to win to cover, although I’m picking the Seahawks outright anyway. Kansas City’s regular-season reputation should not be overvalued in a preseason finale where established stars are unlikely to determine the outcome. Seattle plus the points and the under make the most sense.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Philadelphia, the ATS pick is Philadelphia -2.5, and the total pick is Under 36.5. Philadelphia’s roster depth is exactly the sort of characteristic I want to back in the final preseason game, when the second and third units determine most of the outcome. Cincinnati can remain competitive early, but the Eagles have the better chance of pulling away later. Philadelphia below a field goal is the side, with the under completing the play.
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Dallas, the ATS pick is Dallas -2.5, and the total pick is Under 38.5. Dallas gets the home finale and only needs to win by a field goal to cover. New Orleans should be competitive, but the Cowboys have enough depth to create separation during the second half. The 38.5 total also gives us more breathing room than most of Friday’s board, and I would rather make New Orleans prove it can help push this game into the 40s.
Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Denver, the ATS pick is Denver -6.5, and the total pick is Over 39.5. This is the most aggressive position on the board, but Denver’s offensive depth and home-field advantage make the Broncos capable of creating the sort of margin needed to cover a preseason touchdown. Minnesota should still contribute enough points to push the game beyond 39.5, particularly if Denver establishes an early lead and forces the Vikings to throw. Denver -6.5 is the Best Bet.
Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Indianapolis, the ATS pick is Indianapolis -3.5, and the total pick is Under 36.5. Indianapolis has the home-field advantage and should have the better opportunity to control this game once the reserve units take over. The hook above three isn’t ideal, but the Colts are still the preferred side. Detroit’s preseason finale should become increasingly conservative as the game progresses, which makes the under the stronger companion selection.
Chicago Bears vs Tennessee Titans Pick
The moneyline pick for this matchup is Tennessee, the ATS pick is Tennessee -3.5, and the total pick is Under 37.5. Tennessee closes the preseason at home and has more reason to continue evaluating its younger offensive personnel, while Chicago’s priority should increasingly shift toward getting healthy for games that count. The Titans are worth laying the 3.5 with, while the under fits a matchup likely to become considerably more conservative in the second half.
NFL Preseason Picks Record
| Category | Record |
|---|---|
| Overall NFL Picks | 32-18-1 |
| Moneyline Picks | 9-8-0 |
| ATS Picks | 8-8-1 |
| Total Picks | 15-2-0 |
| Best Bets | 0-2 |
The record will begin with the 2026 NFL preseason and will be updated after each completed slate.It will be updated to regular season picks only after the preseason is completed.
How to Bet on NFL Games
The three most popular NFL betting markets are the moneyline, point spread, and game total. Each market provides a different way to wager on a game depending on where you believe the best betting value exists.
A moneyline wager is a bet on which team will win the game outright. The final margin does not matter. Favorites normally come with a higher price, while an underdog moneyline offers a larger potential return.
ATS stands for “against the spread.” The favorite must win by more than the listed point spread to cover, while the underdog can cover by winning outright or losing by fewer points than the spread. If the final margin lands directly on the listed number, the wager is normally graded as a push.
A total wager focuses on the combined number of points scored by both teams. Bettors can select the over if they expect the teams to combine for more points than the posted total or the under if they anticipate a lower-scoring contest.
What We Consider When Making NFL Picks
Our NFL picks are focused on identifying betting value rather than simply selecting the most recognisable team or obvious favourite. We evaluate quarterback play, offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, turnover margin, injuries, home-field advantage, scheduling situations, coaching tendencies, weather conditions, and how sportsbooks are pricing each matchup.
During the preseason, we place additional importance on quarterback rotations, projected playing time, roster depth, coaching approach, and the number of established starters expected to participate. Preseason results are less predictable because winning the game is not always a team’s primary objective.
The process changes during the playoffs, when teams shorten their rotations and every possession carries greater importance. Regardless of the point in the season, the goal remains the same: finding a wager where the available odds may not fully reflect the most likely outcome.
NFL Betting Tips
Shopping for the best available line is one of the simplest ways to improve your long-term NFL betting results. A half-point difference may not appear significant, but it can determine whether a point-spread or total wager wins, loses, or pushes.
It is also important to distinguish between predicting a winner and identifying betting value. A team may be likely to win without offering value at its current moneyline or point spread. Likewise, an underdog can be a worthwhile wager even when it is not expected to win outright.
Remain disciplined with your wager sizes and avoid dramatically increasing your stakes after a loss. Successful sports betting is based on making consistent decisions over an entire season rather than trying to win every wager.
NFL Preseason Betting
NFL preseason games require a different approach from regular-season contests. Star players may appear for only a few drives or remain on the sideline for the entire game. Backup quarterbacks, rookies, and players competing for roster spots can determine the final result.
Coaches also have different preseason priorities. Some place greater emphasis on winning, while others focus almost exclusively on player evaluation and installing their systems. Projected quarterback rotations and roster depth can therefore be more useful than a team’s previous regular-season record.
Betting lines may move quickly when information about playing time becomes public. Waiting for reliable reports can provide valuable information, although it may also mean accepting a less favourable number.
NFL Regular-Season Betting
Regular-season NFL betting offers more dependable information about team strength, personnel, coaching tendencies, and player roles. However, bettors should avoid reacting too strongly to one result, particularly during the opening weeks.
Matchups are often more important than overall records. A strong team may encounter difficulties against an opponent whose defensive scheme or offensive style exposes a specific weakness. Travel, rest, weather, injuries, and changes along the offensive line can also influence the betting value.
Because NFL point spreads and totals move throughout the week, the number attached to a wager is just as important as the team being selected.
NFL Playoff Betting
The NFL playoffs feature stronger competition and increased public betting interest. Sportsbooks have extensive information about every remaining team, which can make obvious value more difficult to find.
Home-field advantage, quarterback experience, defensive pressure, weather, and late-game execution become particularly important during elimination games. Bettors should also consider how each team’s style matches up against its opponent rather than relying solely on its regular-season record.
The Super Bowl presents an additional challenge because of the two-week break, neutral venue, increased media attention, and expanded selection of betting markets.
Responsible Gambling Reminder
Sports betting should always be treated as entertainment rather than guaranteed income. Only wager what you can comfortably afford to lose, establish reasonable limits, and never chase losses.
If betting stops being enjoyable or begins causing financial or emotional stress, take a break and seek assistance. Responsible gambling is more important than the outcome of any individual wager.
NFL Picks FAQ
Are these NFL picks updated every week?
Yes. We update this page throughout the NFL preseason, regular season, and playoffs with moneyline picks, ATS picks, total picks, and our best bet.
Do you provide picks for every NFL game?
Yes. Whenever a complete NFL slate is available, we aim to provide picks and analysis for every scheduled game.
What is the best NFL bet this week?
Our favourite wager is featured in the NFL Best Bet of the Week section near the top of the page. The selection may be a moneyline, point spread, total, or another widely available betting market.
Do you track your NFL betting record?
Yes. We maintain running records for our overall NFL picks, moneyline selections, ATS picks, totals, and best bets.
What does ATS mean in NFL betting?
ATS stands for “against the spread.” Instead of merely selecting the winner, you are wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread established by the sportsbook.
What does NFL moneyline mean?
An NFL moneyline wager is a bet on which team will win the game outright. The winning margin does not matter, but favourites and underdogs are offered at different prices.
What is an NFL total?
The total is the projected number of combined points for both teams. Bettors can wager on whether the final combined score will finish over or under that number.
Do you provide NFL preseason picks?
Yes. Our NFL coverage begins with the preseason and continues through the Super Bowl. Because preseason playing time can be unpredictable, we wait for reliable quarterback rotation and personnel information whenever possible.
When should I place an NFL bet?
That depends on the market. Betting early may help you secure a favourable line, while waiting can provide more information about injuries, weather, and projected player availability. Always compare the latest odds before placing a wager.
What is the best way to bet on NFL games?
Most NFL bettors focus on moneylines, point spreads, and totals. The key is identifying value, comparing odds, managing your bankroll, and remaining disciplined throughout the season.
More Free Football Picks
Are you looking for more predictions? Check out our free football picks covering the biggest games from across the sport.
Interested in Canadian football? Visit our free CFL picks for weekly moneyline, ATS, total, and best-bet predictions.
College football more your jam? Check out our free college football picks throughout the regular season, conference championships, and bowl schedule.
If you want to keep up with the latest news and trade rumors then check out the NFL website.
