Dallas visits Target Center at 8:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV. Minnesota is favored by 4.5, and the total I’m using is 226.5. Minnesota has been good at home, but Dallas has a way to score against a set defense through Cooper Flagg. See more NBA picks.
Dallas Has a Way to Stay Close When Minnesota Takes Away the First Look
The Mavericks are 7-4 and 2-2 on the road. They beat Indiana 125-122 on Monday after beating Brooklyn 130-93 on Sunday. The two wins came in very different games. Against Minnesota, I’d expect more of a possession-by-possession test than either score suggests.
Dallas needs to get a paint touch before Minnesota sets its help, then make the next pass quickly. The Mavericks held Brooklyn to 93 but gave up 122 to Indiana. Against the Wolves, Dallas has to keep that second game from becoming the template by finishing rebounds and avoiding easy runouts.
Flagg had 43 points, 11 rebounds and six assists against Indiana. He won’t need 43 for Dallas to cover, but the six assists are relevant: if Minnesota brings a second defender, he can still get the possession to a good shot. That makes Dallas less dependent on winning the first matchup.
Minnesota Can Control the Game With Defense
The Timberwolves are 8-3 and 4-1 at home. They’ve won four straight, most recently beating Utah 115-100 on Sunday. The Wolves have had more time to prepare and can make Dallas score through traffic more often than Indiana did.
Minnesota has allowed 107.7 points per game through 11 games. The Wolves can keep this at their pace by taking away the first drive and making Dallas earn second chances. The offensive risk is relying on the same creator every trip when Dallas takes away the first action.
Ayo Dosunmu had 26 against Utah, and LaMelo Ball added 24 points and five assists. Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo were listed out in the early snapshot. That puts more of the scoring and playmaking on Dosunmu and Ball, especially when Dallas can set its defense.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Team Comparison
| Metric | Dallas | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-4 | 8-3 |
| Road / home | 2-2 road | 4-1 home |
| Last result | Won 125-122 vs Indiana | Won 115-100 vs Utah |
| Last game’s leading scorer | Flagg, 43 | Dosunmu, 26 |
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Head-to-Head
| Date | Result | Total points |
|---|---|---|
| March 30, 2026 | Minnesota 124, Dallas 94 | 218 |
| February 20, 2026 | Minnesota 122, Dallas 111 | 233 |
Minnesota won both by double digits. Dallas’ case for covering this time rests on getting enough creation from Flagg to avoid the long scoring drought that made the March meeting a blowout.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves Position-by-Position
| Position | Dallas | Minnesota | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Needs steady initiation against ball pressure | Ball can find the roller or make the skip pass | Minnesota |
| SG | Needs to make quick decisions on kickouts | Dosunmu can score off a second drive | Minnesota |
| SF | Flagg can create for himself or teammates | Has to help without giving up clean wing shots | Dallas for creation |
| PF | P.J. Washington can punish a slow rotation | Can use size to contest and rebound | Even |
| C | Needs to secure rebounds after contesting | Rudy Gobert can protect the rim and finish inside | Minnesota defensively |
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Dallas +4.5
I lean Minnesota outright, but I want Dallas with the points. Flagg can keep Dallas scoring late, and Minnesota has to replace some offense if Edwards remains out. The risk is Minnesota controlling the glass so thoroughly that Dallas never gets enough clean possessions. At +4.5, I’ll take the chance that this is still close in the final minute.
Total Pick: Under 226.5
Dallas just played a 247-point game, but Minnesota is a tougher opponent to score against near the rim. I expect the Wolves to make Dallas spend more time working for its shots, and Minnesota’s own available scoring matters at this number. A run of turnovers or late free throws could spoil it. I project Minnesota 113, Dallas 110.
Final Picks: Dallas +4.5 and Under 226.5.
Prepared November 11, 2026. Lines and player availability can change before tipoff.