Denver and Indiana meet at Arena CDMX in Mexico City on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV. Indiana is the designated home team at the neutral site. Denver is favored by 6.5 points, and the total I’m using is 229.5. The question is whether the Pacers can keep up when Denver runs its offense through Nikola Jokic. See the rest of our NBA picks.
Denver Can Get Good Shots Without Rushing
The Nuggets are 4-3 and were 2-1 on the road before this neutral-site game. They beat Toronto 128-109 on Wednesday, holding the Raptors to 15 points in the third quarter. That was a useful response after Portland put up 118 against them on Monday.
Denver scores 115.4 points per game and allows 114.7. Those numbers suggest a fairly even team, but the matchup gives Denver a clearer way to control possessions. The Nuggets can get into their offense early, put the ball in the middle and let the defense decide which shot it wants to give up. That’s valuable if both teams have a slow start in Mexico City.
Jokic scored 32 against Toronto. Indiana can live with some of his scoring if its help defenders stay connected to cutters and shooters. The trouble comes when it gives him an easy look first, then overreacts on the next possession and gives away a layup or an open three.
Indiana Has to Recreate the Stops It Got in Memphis
The Pacers are 3-6 and were 0-4 in their previous designated home games. They beat Memphis 107-103 on Wednesday after losing 108-104 to Atlanta on Monday. The Memphis win showed Indiana can finish a tight game without needing a big scoring night.
Indiana averages 111.2 points and gives up 114.2. It can make the number uncomfortable for Denver if it finishes possessions with defensive rebounds and avoids letting the Nuggets set up against a scrambled defense. The concern is how often Indiana can get a clean shot when Denver has time to get back.
Andrew Nembhard scored 22 points and had four assists against Memphis, while Pascal Siakam added 20 points. With Tyrese Haliburton listed out with a hamstring injury in the pregame report, Nembhard has to get Indiana organized and Siakam has to help create offense when the first action goes nowhere.
Nuggets vs Pacers Matchup Chart
| Category | Denver | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 3-6 |
| Points per game | 115.4 | 111.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 114.7 | 114.2 |
| November 4 result | Beat Toronto 128-109 | Beat Memphis 107-103 |
Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick: Denver Nuggets -6.5
I’ll lay 6.5 with Denver. Indiana can defend well enough to keep this close for stretches, but asking the Pacers to match Denver’s shot quality for four quarters without Haliburton is a bigger ask. I expect the Nuggets to open a gap when Indiana has to lean on late-clock scoring. I prefer -6.5 to the larger numbers on the board.
Total Pick: Under 229.5
Denver can cover with a score in the high teens if Indiana stays close to the 104 and 107 it scored in its last two games. The biggest risk is Indiana turning Denver misses into quick baskets and getting the game moving before the Nuggets can set their defense. My projection is Denver 118, Indiana 107.
Final Picks: Denver Nuggets -6.5 and Under 229.5.
Completed November 6, 2026. Betting lines and player availability can change before tipoff.