Oklahoma City visits FedExForum in Memphis on Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET. Both teams enter with six wins, but Oklahoma City has just beaten Cleveland twice while Memphis has lost its last two. The Thunder are favored by 3.5 points, and the total used here is 225.5.
Find the rest of Friday’s card on our NBA picks and predictions page.
Oklahoma City Still Has a Way to Score Late
Oklahoma City is 6-2 overall and 2-2 on the road. The Thunder beat Cleveland 117-112 away and then 124-116 at home. After scoring 96 and 98 in their previous two games, they showed they can still produce enough offense to win when an opponent keeps scoring.
The Thunder average 110.0 points and allow 108.8. Memphis has the better raw scoring average, so Oklahoma City needs to keep the game from turning into a race. Getting back after misses will help force Memphis to create against a set defense rather than letting it start possessions with an open lane.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 43 and 42 in the two Cleveland wins. That gives Oklahoma City a reliable late-clock option, but it also shows how much the offense has asked of him. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams remain out, reducing the Thunder’s secondary creation and frontcourt options.
Memphis Needs More Than a Strong Season Average
Memphis is 6-2 overall and 2-2 at home. The Grizzlies lost 135-134 in overtime to New Orleans and then 107-103 to Indiana. The two games went very differently, but Memphis failed to close either one.
The Grizzlies average 120.5 points and allow 109.8. Their best chance is to keep Oklahoma City from getting comfortable defensively, especially after a turnover or a long rebound. The Indiana game showed the downside when Memphis has to manufacture points against a defense that is already organized.
Cedric Coward scored 23 against Indiana, two nights after Ty Jerome scored 40 against New Orleans. That is useful scoring depth, but Memphis needs it to show up in the same game. Isaiah Stewart is listed out with a knee issue, thinning the frontcourt against a Thunder team already dealing with its own absences.
Thunder vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5
I’ll lay 3.5 with Oklahoma City. Memphis can cover if it gets easy baskets early and makes the Thunder chase the game. The visitors also need more help for Gilgeous-Alexander than they needed against Cleveland. But when the game slows late, he gives Oklahoma City the better chance of getting a useful shot. I trust the Thunder to create a small margin there.
Total Pick: Under 225.5
Memphis is capable of pushing this over, particularly if Oklahoma City’s missing frontcourt pieces lead to easy interior scoring. But the Thunder average 110.0, Memphis just scored 103 in regulation against Indiana, and both defenses have generally held opponents below 110. I expect more of this game to be played in the half court. Projection: Oklahoma City 113, Memphis 107.
Final Picks: Oklahoma City -3.5 and Under 225.5. Projected winner: Oklahoma City.
Completed November 5, 2026. Lines and final injury designations may change.