Minnesota visits Smoothie King Center in New Orleans on Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET in NBA Cup West Group B play. The Timberwolves just won at Houston, while the Pelicans have climbed back to .500 after losing their first four games. Minnesota is favored by 4.5 points, with a total of 229.5.
See our NBA picks and predictions page for the complete Friday card.
Minnesota’s Defense Has Kept the Offense From Carrying Too Much
Minnesota is 6-3 overall and 3-2 on the road after winning 117-107 at Houston. The Timberwolves had beaten Milwaukee by 12 two nights earlier, but getting a win at Toyota Center was the stronger result. Houston had been unbeaten at home.
The Wolves average 118.8 points and allow 107.6. They do not need to keep pace with New Orleans’ raw scoring average if they can stop the first drive and secure the rebound. That matters against a team whose recent totals have been helped by two overtime periods across its last two games.
Ayo Dosunmu scored 21 against Houston, and LaMelo Ball scored 34 in the previous win over Milwaukee. Minnesota has found scoring from several places with Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo out. Terrence Shannon Jr. was listed questionable with a hip issue, so the remaining wing rotation is worth checking.
New Orleans Has to Keep Minnesota Out of Its Comfort Zone
New Orleans is 4-4 overall and 3-2 at home. The Pelicans beat Utah 120-113 in overtime Wednesday, following a 135-134 overtime win at Memphis. They have won four straight, although neither of those last two games was decided in regulation.
The Pelicans average 121.6 points and allow 119.2. They can make this difficult for Minnesota by attacking before the Wolves set their interior defense. If the game settles into longer possessions, New Orleans will need cleaner spacing and more patience than it needs in a faster matchup.
Zion Williamson scored 23 against Utah. His ability to draw help gives New Orleans a way to test Minnesota without depending on jump shots alone. Trey Murphy III was listed probable on the early report. His spacing matters because Minnesota can pack the paint more aggressively when the Pelicans have fewer reliable perimeter options.
Timberwolves vs Pelicans Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5
I’m taking Minnesota -4.5. New Orleans is playing better and can keep this tight if Williamson gets downhill consistently. But Minnesota held Houston to 107 and has found enough offense without Edwards to make those stops count. The Wolves’ defense gives them a better chance of creating a decisive stretch without needing an unusually hot shooting night.
Total Pick: Under 229.5
New Orleans’ two overtime games make its recent scoring look more imposing than its regulation output. Minnesota’s defense is the stronger reason for the under, and Edwards’ absence also limits the Wolves’ scoring ceiling. The Pelicans’ soft defense could put Minnesota well into the 120s, so this is the smaller of the two plays. Projection: Minnesota 117, New Orleans 110.
Final Picks: Minnesota -4.5 and Under 229.5. Projected winner: Minnesota.
Completed November 5, 2026. Betting lines and final availability may change.