Washington visits State Farm Arena in Atlanta on Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET, two nights after the Hawks won the first game in Washington. The rematch turns on whether the Wizards can clean up the glass and whether both teams get their key forwards back. A full-game spread and total were unavailable on the boards checked at preparation.
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Washington Has to Finish Its Defensive Possessions
Washington is 4-4 overall and 2-2 on the road. Wednesday’s 120-105 loss to Atlanta ended a two-game winning streak. The Wizards had allowed 79 and 94 in those victories, then gave the Hawks too many chances to get comfortable from outside.
The Wizards average 108.9 points and allow 109.0. Wednesday was a departure from their usual defensive results, but Atlanta’s 19 offensive rebounds explain part of it. Washington can live with the Hawks taking contested threes. It cannot keep giving them a second attempt after forcing the miss.
Anthony Davis scored 26 in the first meeting and is questionable with an ankle issue on the early report. His status affects more than Washington’s scoring: the Wizards need his size against a team that just controlled the offensive glass. If he sits, Washington will need to rebound as a group and avoid giving up open shots while helping inside.
Atlanta Can Win the Rematch Without Making 19 Threes Again
Atlanta is 5-4 overall and 1-2 at home. The Hawks have won two straight, beating Indiana before taking the first game from Washington. The rematch gives them a chance to carry that road form back to State Farm Arena.
The Hawks average 115.8 points and allow 113.0. They made 19 of 49 threes Wednesday and recorded 34 assists. The shot volume matters even if the percentage drops: it kept Washington’s defenders moving and pulled them away from rebounding positions.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored 26 against Washington. He gives Atlanta another way to create offense if Jalen Johnson, listed questionable with an ankle issue, is limited or unavailable. Asa Newell is listed out. Johnson’s status is particularly relevant if Washington closes out harder and forces the Hawks to create off the dribble.
Wizards vs Hawks Picks and Predictions
Projected Winner: Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta gets the nod at home. Washington can improve on Wednesday’s effort without changing much offensively if it simply finishes more defensive possessions. But the Hawks can still create extra shots, and their scoring has been more reliable. Davis and Johnson’s statuses could change how close this gets. I project Atlanta to win, with no ATS play until a full-game spread is verified.
Total Outlook: Pending a Verified Line
Wednesday finished at 225 points despite Atlanta making 19 threes. A better defensive rebounding effort from Washington could lower the shot volume, while a healthier rotation on either side could improve efficiency. I project Atlanta 115, Washington 105. That gives us a 220-point baseline to compare with the market once a total is available.
Final Projection: Atlanta 115, Washington 105. ATS and total picks pending.
Completed November 5, 2026. Final injuries and betting lines may change the analysis.