San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 24 2026

San Antonio heads to Dallas on Saturday looking for its first win, while the Mavericks return home after beating Indiana. Both teams played Friday, so neither gets a rest advantage. Tipoff at American Airlines Center is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET. Our selections remain Dallas +11.5 and Under 230.5, with San Antonio projected to win a closer game than the spread suggests.

Find the rest of Saturday’s matchups and selections on our NBA picks and predictions page.

Spurs vs Mavericks Game Information

San Antonio Needs Better Finishes to Possessions

San Antonio enters 0-2 after Friday’s 114-110 loss to Houston in Austin. Saturday is its first road game following two designated home dates. The Spurs stayed close against the Rockets, which was an improvement over their opening loss to Oklahoma City, but they still need to turn competitive stretches into a complete performance.

The Spurs have scored 107.0 points per game while allowing 115.0 through two outings. That is a small sample against difficult opponents, but it makes laying 11.5 points uncomfortable. San Antonio can create problems around the basket, yet a double-digit cover also requires defensive stops, clean rebounds and efficient possessions when the initial action breaks down. Dallas will have opportunities if the Spurs leave those details unfinished.

Victor Wembanyama produced 25 points and 13 rebounds against Houston, shooting 9-for-21. His presence gives San Antonio its clearest matchup advantage, especially when he can establish position before Dallas sets its defense. The Spurs’ Saturday injury submission was pending on the overnight report reviewed for this preview, so Friday’s rotation should not be treated as a confirmed Saturday lineup.

Dallas Has Enough Offense to Make the Points Interesting

Dallas improved to 1-1 with a 121-105 victory at Indiana on Friday after losing its opener at Houston. Both games were on the road, making this the Mavericks’ home opener. The response in Indiana matters: Dallas showed it could generate sustained offense after a difficult first game, although returning home overnight adds another challenge.

The Mavericks are averaging 115.5 points and allowing 116.5. Their defense still has work to do, particularly against San Antonio’s size, but they do not need to shut the Spurs down to cover this number. Dallas needs to avoid empty stretches, make San Antonio defend in the half court and keep enough offensive pressure on the visitors that the game remains competitive entering the fourth quarter.

Kyrie Irving led Dallas with 24 points against Indiana. Cooper Flagg scored 14 before leaving with left shoulder soreness and did not return for the second half. His availability is the biggest unresolved issue here. Losing another creator would make Dallas more dependent on Irving and could make San Antonio’s defensive assignments easier. Flagg’s Friday exit is confirmed; his Saturday availability still requires a separate update.

Spurs vs Mavericks Statistical Comparison

Figures below cover each team’s first two games of the 2026-27 regular season.

Where This Game Gets Decided

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Predictions

Spread Pick: Dallas Mavericks +11.5

I’m taking Dallas with the points. San Antonio has the interior advantage and remains my projected winner, but winning by 12 or more is a substantial requirement on the second night of a back-to-back. Dallas just demonstrated that it can produce enough offense to control a road game, and Irving gives the Mavericks a way to answer difficult defensive possessions. The strongest argument against this pick is Flagg’s shoulder: a depleted Dallas rotation could struggle to keep its offense moving against San Antonio’s length. Even with that concern, my projection has the Spurs winning by seven. Dallas +11.5 is the preferred selection, subject to checking the final availability report.

Total Pick: Under 230.5

I lean under because San Antonio’s offense has not yet operated consistently enough to justify expecting a shootout. The Spurs’ first two games averaged 222 combined points, and both teams now face a quick turnaround. My expectation is that longer half-court possessions become more common as the game progresses. The risk is Dallas’ defense allowing easy interior baskets, followed by the Mavericks answering from outside. Offensive rebounds and late fouling could also push this over. I project 227 combined points, leaving a modest cushion below 230.5 rather than a large margin for error.

Final Prediction

Final Picks: Dallas Mavericks +11.5 and Under 230.5.

Prepared October 24, 2026, using completed October 23 results. Picks use the listed numbers. Odds, injury designations and lineups may change. Two-game statistics describe early results and should not be treated as established team performance.