New Orleans continues its road trip Saturday at Ball Arena after a one-point loss in Utah. Denver had Friday off following a difficult offensive opener at Oklahoma City. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET in Denver. The Nuggets are favored by 11.5 points, with our slate total at 237.5. Denver has the schedule advantage and gets my outright vote. The spread asks for more. I’m taking New Orleans with the points and looking under.
Pelicans vs Nuggets Game Information
| Game Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Matchup | New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets |
| Date | Saturday, October 24, 2026 |
| Tipoff | 9:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. MT |
| Arena | Ball Arena |
| Location | Denver, Colorado |
| Spread used | New Orleans +11.5 |
| Total used | 237.5 |
| Rest situation | New Orleans played Friday in Utah; Denver had Friday off |
New Orleans Has Been Close Enough to Make the Points Interesting
New Orleans is 0-2, including 0-1 away, after Friday’s 120-119 loss at Utah. That followed a 123-120 home loss to Indiana. The Pelicans have lost twice by a combined four points, giving this matchup a different feel from one involving a team being beaten comfortably. The problem is finishing, and Saturday’s travel does not make that easier.
The Pelicans have averaged 119.5 points while allowing 121.5 through two games. Their scoring gives them a credible route to covering a large spread, but the defense must improve to turn competitive games into wins. Against Denver, New Orleans needs to protect the basket without allowing every help rotation to become an open perimeter attempt. Offensively, it cannot let fatigue turn reasonable opportunities into rushed jumpers or careless passes.
In the verified opening-game box score against Indiana, Dejounte Murray scored 23 points and Zion Williamson added 22. Yves Missi contributed 13 points, 14 rebounds and five assists, showing why his rebounding and interior involvement matter beyond scoring. Those are October 21 figures, not Friday totals. New Orleans’ Saturday injury submission was pending on the October 24, 12:15 a.m. ET report, so this preview does not assume the rotation has received final clearance.
Denver Needs Better Shots Before It Needs More Shots
Denver is 0-1 after Thursday’s 96-84 loss at Oklahoma City. Saturday is its home opener, with a 0-0 home record entering the game. The Nuggets had Friday to recover and prepare, while New Orleans played a close road game. That is a meaningful advantage, but Denver still has to repair the execution that left it short of 90 points.
The Nuggets shot 37.8% from the field and 26.7% from three in the opener, committing 22 turnovers. Those mistakes limited their chances even before accounting for missed shots. Denver does not need to force an immediate scoring explosion against New Orleans. It needs cleaner entries, useful movement around the ball and fewer possessions handed away. The Pelicans’ early defensive results offer an opportunity, but Denver has to earn that improvement through better decisions.
Nikola Jokic finished the opener with 13 points, seven rebounds and five assists, shooting 5-for-19. Jamal Murray scored six on 2-for-11 shooting and committed six turnovers. More efficient nights from those two would change Denver’s offense considerably. The latest checked report listed Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther out, with Alpha Diallo questionable because of a right wrist sprain. That available depth matters when asking Denver to build and maintain a double-digit margin.
Pelicans vs Nuggets Statistical Comparison
2026-27 figures through completed games on October 23. New Orleans has played twice; Denver has played once.
| Category | New Orleans | Denver |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Relevant venue record | 0-1 away | 0-0 home |
| Points per game | 119.5 | 84.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 121.5 | 96.0 |
| Average scoring margin | -2.0 | -12.0 |
| Latest result | Lost 120-119 to Utah | Lost 96-84 to Oklahoma City |
What Matters Against the Spread and Total
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Denver’s rest advantage | Supports the home team, particularly if New Orleans tires late. |
| New Orleans’ close losses | The Pelicans have stayed competitive, although two games cannot establish a reliable spread trend. |
| Denver’s turnover control | Cleaner possessions could improve scoring without requiring unusually hot shooting. |
| Our projected total | 233 points against a betting total of 237.5 |
New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets Picks and Predictions
Spread Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +11.5
I’m taking New Orleans +11.5 and picking Denver to win. The Pelicans have scored enough to stay within three points in both games, while Denver has yet to demonstrate the offensive consistency needed to make laying a large number comfortable. The counterargument is the schedule: New Orleans comes off a close game in Utah and now faces a rested opponent in Denver. If the Nuggets protect the ball and their primary scorers improve, the visitors could struggle to keep up late. I still prefer the cushion with a team that has remained competitive despite its winless record.
Total Pick: Under 237.5
The under allows for a substantial Denver improvement without requiring another game in the 80s. My projection is Denver 121, New Orleans 112, totaling 233. Denver’s available depth and New Orleans’ consecutive road games could create stretches where scoring is harder to sustain. The concern is the Pelicans’ defense, which has allowed 123 and 120, combined with the possibility that Denver’s shooting recovers sharply at home. New Orleans has also scored consistently enough to threaten this number. I lean under, but the spread is my stronger preference.
Final Prediction
| Selection | Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denver Nuggets |
| ATS | New Orleans +11.5 |
| Total | Under 237.5 |
| Projected score | Denver 121, New Orleans 112 |
| Preferred bet | New Orleans +11.5 |
Final Picks: New Orleans Pelicans +11.5 and Under 237.5.
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Completed October 24, 2026. Team scoring figures reflect completed games through October 23. New Orleans player statistics identified above are from October 21; Denver player statistics are from October 22. Injury information uses the October 24, 12:15 a.m. ET report. Lines and availability may change.