Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates face the St. Louis Cardinals in the first game of a four-game series on Monday, August 25, 2025, at 7:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. The Pirates are coming off a 4-0 win over the Colorado Rockies on Saturday, while the Cardinals lost 10-6 to the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday. The Pirates swept the Cardinals 7-0, 1-0, and 5-0 from June 30 to July 2, 2025, showcasing their dominance in the season series (7-2). This NL Central matchup is critical for the Pirates to maintain momentum and for the Cardinals to reclaim home-field advantage. Fans seeking a winning edge can rely on this expert preview, featuring player insights, pitching matchups, and a prediction—unlock more game-changing tips with our exclusive MLB strategies now!
Team Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates
- 2025 Record (as of August 24): 57-74, 5th in NL Central
- Performance Overview: The Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 games, averaging 4.0 runs/game with a .234 batting average and a 3.21 ERA. Bryan Reynolds’ 63 RBI and Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s .276 BA lead the offense, but injuries to Oneil Cruz (CF, concussion), Endy Rodríguez (1B, elbow), and Jared Jones (SP, elbow) test their depth.
- Strengths: Strong pitching (3.21 ERA in last 10 games) and a 7-2 season series edge over the Cardinals.
- Weaknesses: Weak offense (467 runs, last in MLB) and a 18-44 road record.
- Player to Watch: Bryan Reynolds (RF) – His .246 BA, 10 HRs, and .286 BA in his last 5 games make him a key offensive spark.
St. Louis Cardinals
- 2025 Record (as of August 24): 64-66, 3rd in NL Central
- Performance Overview: The Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games, averaging 5.0 runs/game with a .250 batting average and a 5.52 ERA. Alec Burleson’s .285 BA and Willson Contreras’ 19 HRs drive the offense, but injuries to Nolan Arenado (3B, shoulder), Brendan Donovan (2B, groin), and Jordan Walker (RF, appendicitis) weaken their lineup.
- Strengths: Solid home record (33-29) and a .318 OBP (14th in MLB).
- Weaknesses: Struggling pitching (5.52 ERA in last 10 games) and a 4-6 record against the spread.
- Player to Watch: Willson Contreras (1B) – His .263 BA, 19 HRs, 70 RBI, and .391 BA with 3 HRs in his last 5 games make him a power threat.
Head-to-Head Record
- Historical Context: The Pirates lead the 2025 season series 7-2, with a dominant sweep from June 30 to July 2 (7-0, 1-0, 5-0). Paul Skenes’ 1.31 ERA and 23 K’s over 20.2 IP vs. the Cardinals have been pivotal.
- Recent Encounter: On July 2, the Pirates won 5-0, with Skenes throwing 7 scoreless innings and Jared Triolo hitting a homer.
- Key Insight: The Pirates’ pitching, led by Skenes and Mitch Keller, has stifled the Cardinals’ offense, while their bats have capitalized on St. Louis’ pitching woes.
Pitching Matchups Table
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA | Innings Pitched | Strikeouts | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Mitch Keller (RHP) | 5-12 | 4.34 | 145.2 | 116 | 1.31 |
| Cardinals | Michael McGreevy (RHP) | 5-2 | 4.26 | 57.2 | 33 | 1.30 |
Strengths and Negatives of Pitchers
- Mitch Keller (Pirates):
- Strengths: Reliable innings-eater (15 quality starts) and a 1.33 ERA in 20.1 IP vs. the Cardinals this season, allowing a .213 BA. His sinker-slider mix induces groundballs (45.3% GB rate).
- Negatives: Recent struggles (5 ER in 3.1 IP vs. Toronto on August 19) and a 4.34 ERA could be exploited by Contreras’ hot bat.
- Michael McGreevy (Cardinals):
- Strengths: Consistent 4.26 ERA, 5.2 K/9, and three straight quality starts, including 6 IP with 2 ER vs. Miami on August 19. His sinker-curveball combo limits hard contact (40.9% hard-hit rate).
- Negatives: Low strikeout rate (5.2 K/9) and a .268 BA allowed could be targeted by Reynolds and Kiner-Falefa.
Key Players to Monitor
- Pittsburgh Pirates:
- Bryan Reynolds (RF): .246 BA, 10 HRs, .286 BA in last 5 games.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS): .276 BA, 10 RBI, hitting .300 in last 10 games.
- Jared Triolo (3B): .167 BA, 3 HRs, 2-for-2 with a homer in the July 2 win.
- St. Louis Cardinals:
- Willson Contreras (1B): .263 BA, 19 HRs, .391 BA with 3 HRs in last 5 games.
- Alec Burleson (1B): .285 BA, 10 HRs, 2-for-5 with an RBI in Friday’s loss.
- Masyn Winn (SS): .258 BA, 9 HRs, .286 BA in last 5 games (questionable, knee).
Recent Performance
- Pittsburgh Pirates: At 57-74, the Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10, scoring 40 runs while allowing 32, with their pitching excelling and offense showing flashes.
- St. Louis Cardinals: At 64-66, the Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10, scoring 50 runs but allowing 55, with pitching struggles undermining their offense.
Critical Factors
- Venue: Busch Stadium’s pitcher-friendly dimensions (3.90 park ERA) favor Keller and McGreevy, but Contreras’ power could break through.
- Weather: Forecasted at 78°F with partly cloudy skies, ideal for a competitive game.
- Momentum: The Pirates’ 6-4 run and 7-2 series lead contrast with the Cardinals’ 3-7 slump and pitching woes.
- Betting Odds: Cardinals favored at -137, with over/under at 8.0, reflecting a close matchup with offensive potential.
Prediction
The Pittsburgh Pirates hold a slight edge in this matchup, driven by Mitch Keller’s 1.33 ERA vs. the Cardinals and their 7-2 season series dominance. Michael McGreevy’s low strikeout rate could be exploited by Reynolds and Kiner-Falefa, despite the Cardinals’ home advantage. The Pirates’ bullpen, with David Bednar, should hold off Contreras’ hot bat to secure the win and continue their series dominance.
Final Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates win, 4-3. Reynolds drives in a run, and Keller pitches six quality innings.
Best Bets
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) – Keller’s dominance over St. Louis and the Pirates’ series edge make them a value pick.
- Under 8.0 Runs – Busch Stadium’s pitcher-friendly setup and Keller’s strong history vs. the Cardinals suggest a low-scoring game.
- Bryan Reynolds to Record a Hit (-130) – His .246 BA and .286 BA in the last 5 games offer solid value against McGreevy.
This preview, based on the latest trends and stats as of August 24, 2025, delivers expert, trustworthy, and engaging content for MLB fans. Watch live on FDSMW or SportsNet PT.
