The Pittsburgh Pirates (52–72, 18–43 away) close out their series against the Chicago Cubs (69–53, 37–23 home) at Wrigley Field, with first pitch at 2:20 PM ET. The Cubs are battling to keep pace atop the NL Central, while the Pirates continue to evaluate young talent and play spoiler.
Recent Form
Pirates (Last 5)
- L 3–1 @ CHC
- W 3–2 @ CHC
- L 12–5 @ MIL
- L 14–0 @ MIL
- L 7–1 @ MIL
The Pirates have dropped 4 of their last 5, scoring just 10 total runs in those losses. Their lineup remains inconsistent, especially without Oneil Cruz.
Cubs (Last 5)
- W 3–1 vs PIT
- L 3–2 vs PIT
- L 2–1 @ TOR
- W 4–1 @ TOR
- L 5–1 @ TOR
The Cubs have split their last 4 games but remain a strong home team (37–23 at Wrigley).
Probable Pitchers
| Team | Starter | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K | BB | HR | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP) | 2–7 | 4.20 | 1.39 | 75.0 | 62 | 20 | 8 | Young righty with solid stuff but struggles with command and hard contact. |
| CHC | Javier Assad (RHP) | 0–1 | 9.00 | 2.25 | 4.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Small sample size this year — has been hittable but was reliable for Cubs last season. |
Pitching is shaky on both sides, though Mlodzinski has at least built some innings while Assad is still finding his form.
Key Players to Watch
Pirates
- Bryan Reynolds (.242, 13 HR, 61 RBI) — still the most dependable bat in the order.
- Oneil Cruz (18 HR, 51 RBI) — power threat, but sidelined on the IL.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes — defense standout who needs to contribute more at the plate.
Cubs
- Seiya Suzuki (.251, 27 HR, 86 RBI) — leading the Cubs in power production, quietly having a huge season.
- Nico Hoerner (.294 AVG) — steady bat who sets the table near the top of the lineup.
- Cubs bullpen (3.85 ERA) — consistent unit that closes out tight games at Wrigley.
Matchup Breakdown
The Cubs are heavy favorites for good reason — they have the better lineup, stronger bullpen, and home-field advantage. The Pirates’ pitching staff has been battered all week, and their lineup lacks consistent production without Cruz.
The Cubs’ right-handed bats (Suzuki, Morel, and Happ) should find success against Mlodzinski if he struggles with location. Assad is the wild card: if he can survive 4–5 innings, Chicago should be in good shape.
Betting Trends & Best Bets
- Cubs ML (-225) — chalky but the clear side given the talent gap.
- Over 9.5 (-105) — both starters can give up runs, and the wind at Wrigley can turn games high-scoring quickly.
- Seiya Suzuki to Record an RBI — locked in as Chicago’s most consistent run producer.
Prediction
The Pirates will likely need a flawless start from Mlodzinski to hang around, but the Cubs’ deeper lineup and bullpen edge should win out late. Look for Suzuki to continue his hot streak at Wrigley.
Final Score: Cubs 6, Pirates 3
