Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies (67–49) head to Great American Ball Park on Monday, August 11, 2025, to take on the Cincinnati Reds (61–57) in a crucial late-season matchup. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 PM ET, with coverage available on FDSOH and NBCS-PH.
Both teams are in the thick of their playoff races — the Phillies looking to maintain control in the NL East, and the Reds fighting to stay alive in the NL Wild Card hunt.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Taijuan Walker – Philadelphia Phillies (RHP)
- Season Stats: 3.53 ERA | 1.30 WHIP | 79 IP | 72 K | .243 OBA
- Recent Form: Coming off 6 shutout innings against Baltimore, Walker has been finding his rhythm with improved control and soft contact rates.
- Vs. Reds: Limited exposure but has kept the ball in the yard — a must at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Andrew Abbott – Cincinnati Reds (LHP)
- Season Stats: 12 of 14 starts with ≤1 ER allowed | Sub-3.00 ERA | Strong strikeout-to-walk ratio
- Recent Form: Abbott has been nearly untouchable at home, leaning on a deceptive fastball and sharp breaking ball to keep hitters guessing.
- Vs. Phillies: History of success — mixes pitches well against power bats like Schwarber and Castellanos.
Betting Odds & Market Insight
(Odds as of August 11, 2025 – ESPN BET)
- Moneyline: Reds -125 | Phillies +105
- Run Line: Reds -1.5 (+160) | Phillies +1.5 (-188)
- Total Runs: O/U 9.5 (Over -106 | Under -113)
- Win Probability (ESPN Analytics): Reds 54% | Phillies 46%
The market is leaning slightly toward Cincinnati, largely due to Abbott’s dominance at home and the Reds’ strong record in Cincinnati.
Offensive Breakdown
Philadelphia Phillies
- Key Player: Kyle Schwarber — On pace for 40+ HR and recently surpassed 1,000 career hits.
- Lineup Strengths: Power potential throughout the order; patient approach can drive pitch counts up.
- Potential Weakness: Reliance on long ball could be tested if Abbott’s breaking stuff is sharp.
Cincinnati Reds
- Key Player: Elly De La Cruz — Speed/power threat who can impact the game on the basepaths and in the field.
- Lineup Strengths: Aggressive approach; solid contact hitters in the middle of the order.
- Potential Weakness: Inconsistency with runners in scoring position.
Key Factors to Watch
- Walker’s Early Command: If he avoids early walks, he can keep the game within reach.
- Abbott vs. Left-Handed Power: Phillies have multiple lefty power bats — Abbott’s success here is crucial.
- Bullpen Depth: Phillies’ relievers have been more consistent of late; Reds’ pen has had some high-leverage struggles.
Recent Form
Phillies Last 5 Games: 4–1 record, including a sweep over Texas. Offense averaging 5.2 runs per game.
Reds Last 5 Games: 3–2 record, solid home performance but occasional bullpen hiccups late.
Prediction & Final Thoughts
The numbers point to a close contest. Abbott’s home dominance is real, but Philadelphia’s hot bats and Walker’s recent control improvements make this far from a lock for Cincinnati.
We’re expecting a tight, lower-scoring battle that could come down to bullpen execution and clutch at-bats in the late innings.
Projected Final Score: Phillies 5 – Reds 3
Best Bets – Phillies vs Reds (Aug. 11, 2025)
1. Phillies Moneyline (+105)
The Phillies are in strong form, winning 4 of their last 5, and they have a pitching edge with Taijuan Walker’s recent control improvements. Cincinnati’s offense has been inconsistent, and Philadelphia’s bullpen has been more reliable in high-leverage spots. The plus money on the Phillies adds value.
2. Under 9.5 Runs (-113)
Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly, but this matchup features two pitchers capable of working deep into games and limiting damage. Walker’s ability to induce soft contact, combined with Andrew Abbott’s strong home ERA, points toward a lower-scoring game.
3. Phillies +1.5 Run Line (-188)
If you prefer a safer approach, taking the Phillies with the run and a half provides protection in what could be a tight contest. Given how both teams have been playing, a one-run game is possible.
