The Yankees visit the Rays in a matchup that pivots on experience vs. inexperience: New York hands the ball to rookie righty Cam Schlittler, while Tampa Bay counters with Drew Rasmussen, a proven bat-muter when he’s commanding the cutter. In a controlled dome environment that trims cheap homers and rewards strike-throwers, the game sets up as a “first time through” test for Schlittler and a pitch-efficiency exam for Rasmussen after his recent ramp-up.
Team Analysis
New York Yankees
New York’s offense remains top-heavy but terrifying: if the middle (Judge/Soto plus protection) gets even two run-producing swings, the Yankees can win low-scoring games on the back of a sturdy late-inning crew. The risk today is swing-and-miss vs. elite spin—Tampa Bay leans on high strike rates and soft contact, and at the Trop that can turn warning-track flies into outs. With a rookie starter, the Yankees’ blueprint is likely short leash, heavy bullpen, and pressure through walks/extra-base hits rather than stringing singles.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays aren’t the most explosive lineup, but they grind at-bats, run smartly, and typically elevate contact quality at home with gap-to-gap doubles. The bigger edge comes on the mound: Rasmussen at his best lives at the knees with a tight cutter/slider mix that steals early-count strikes and induces weak contact. Tampa’s defense and infield positioning convert that profile into outs, and if Rasmussen gives them 5–6 efficient frames, the Rays can play matchup baseball the rest of the way.
Pitching Matchup
Cam Schlittler (RHP), Yankees
Schlittler’s scouting look is command-forward: riding four-seam up, slider that tunnels off it, and a changeup he’ll sprinkle to lefties. First-time looks can favor the pitcher, but the risk is third-time exposure and traffic if the slider backs up. Expect New York to shadow him with a multi-inning reliever to dodge the order a third time.
Drew Rasmussen (RHP), Rays
Rasmussen’s path to success is simple: get ahead with the cutter, expand with the slider, and keep the four-seam off barrels. He doesn’t need big strikeout totals here; weak contact works fine in this park. If he’s around the zone early (sub-12 pitches per batter his first time through), he’s live to work into the sixth with limited damage.
How It Likely Plays Out
Early edge to Tampa Bay on the mound: Rasmussen’s contact suppression and the Trop’s run environment blunt New York’s slug just enough to keep this on script. The Yankees have the superior back-end relief, but if Schlittler faces traffic the first two frames, Tampa can nick a lead and then trade outs for innings. Tight game, few freebies, and one swing or baserunning sequence decides it late.
Best Bets
- Pick: Rays Moneyline – Lean to the veteran starter at home in a run-suppressing park, with a game plan that fits Rasmussen’s strengths.
- Total: Under (8 to 8.5 range) – Dome, ground-ball/cutter profile from Rasmussen, and a rookie starter likely managed aggressively all point to a slower scoring pace.
- Player Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases – Even in an Under-lean, Judge’s batted-ball quality gives him multiple paths (gap double, long single plus another knock) to clear this; it also hedges against a single mistake from Rasmussen.
Projected Score: Rays 4, Yankees 3.
