The New York Yankees (65–57, 28–32 away) face off with the St. Louis Cardinals (61–62, 35–28 home) at Busch Stadium on a sweltering St. Louis afternoon (96°F first pitch). First pitch is set for 2:15 PM ET as the Yankees look to build momentum in the Wild Card race, while the Cardinals try to get back to .500.
Recent Form
Yankees (Last 5)
- W 4–3 @ STL
- L 4–1 vs MIN
- W 9–1 vs MIN
- W 6–2 vs MIN
- L 7–1 vs HOU
The Yankees have won 3 of their last 4, fueled by Aaron Judge’s bat and improved pitching.
Cardinals (Last 5)
- L 4–3 vs NYY
- L 6–5 vs COL
- L 3–0 vs COL
- W 3–2 vs COL
- W 3–2 vs CHC
St. Louis has dropped 3 straight, with the offense sputtering (just 6 total runs across those losses).
Probable Pitchers
| Team | Starter | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K | BB | HR | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | Will Warren (RHP) | 7–5 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 122.1 | 140 | 54 | 14 | Has swing-and-miss stuff (10.3 K/9) but control issues. Needs to limit walks in hitter-friendly Busch. |
| STL | Miles Mikolas (RHP) | 6–9 | 4.97 | 1.28 | 117.2 | 79 | 25 | 21 | Veteran righty who throws strikes but has been homer-prone (21 HR allowed). Facing Judge could be trouble. |
Pitching edge leans slightly Yankees thanks to Warren’s strikeout upside versus Mikolas’ home-run issues.
Key Players to Watch
Yankees
- Aaron Judge (.330 AVG, 38 HR, 89 RBI) — MVP frontrunner, crushing everything in sight.
- Juan Soto (not listed but integral) — provides crucial OBP in front of Judge.
- Yankees bullpen (4.01 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) — steady but has been overworked.
Cardinals
- Willson Contreras (16 HR, 65 RBI) — key run producer but currently day-to-day.
- Alec Burleson (.279 AVG) — underrated bat who lengthens the lineup.
- Paul Goldschmidt — listed day-to-day, his availability could swing the Cards’ offensive ceiling.
Matchup Breakdown
The Yankees’ offense is far more potent (192 HR vs STL’s 115). Judge is locked in, and if Soto and the supporting cast get on base, Mikolas could be in for a long afternoon.
The Cardinals’ lineup is banged up — Contreras and Goldschmidt are both questionable, and Arenado remains sidelined. Without their full core, it’s hard to see them consistently pushing runs against Warren and the Yankees’ bullpen.
Busch Stadium suppresses homers a bit, but Judge is one of the few players who can neutralize park factors.
Betting Trends & Best Bets
- Yankees ML (-145) — Yankees have momentum, better lineup, and pitching edge.
- Under 9.5 (-125) — Busch Stadium tends to keep scores lower, plus STL’s offense is struggling.
- Aaron Judge HR Prop — Mikolas’ homer issues plus Judge’s hot bat make this attractive.
Prediction
The Cardinals fight, but without a healthy Arenado/Goldschmidt/Contreras trio, they can’t keep pace with Judge and the Yankees’ power. Warren does enough to get through 5–6 innings, and New York’s bullpen seals it.
Final Score: Yankees 5, Cardinals 3
