Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
Location: Fenway Park – Boston, MA
TV: Local/NESN
Introduction
Fenway Park sets the stage for a clash between two aces as Miami’s Sandy Alcantara faces Boston’s Lucas Giolito. Both pitchers are capable of dominating a lineup when locked in, but each comes into this matchup with different trends—Alcantara riding a streak of quality starts, while Giolito has struggled with consistency against power-heavy lineups. The Green Monster could be a factor in turning hard-hit balls into doubles, making defensive positioning crucial.
Recent Form
Miami Marlins (Last 10 Games: 5–5)
The Marlins have been streaky, showing flashes of potent offense but also going quiet against strong pitching. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been heating up, while the bullpen has shown vulnerability late in games.
Boston Red Sox (Last 10 Games: 6–4)
Boston has been in a solid rhythm, leaning on their top-of-the-order production and timely hitting. The pitching staff, while not flawless, has been finding ways to limit big innings, especially at Fenway.
Probable Pitchers
| Pitcher | Team | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/BB | Last 3 Starts | Scouting Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara (RHP) | MIA | 7–8 | 3.61 | — | — | — | Power sinker and changeup combo keeps hitters off balance; thrives on pitching deep into games. |
| Lucas Giolito (RHP) | BOS | 10–6 | 4.45 | — | — | — | Four-seam/changeup approach; capable of piling up strikeouts but prone to giving up the long ball when elevated. |
Key Players to Watch
Miami Marlins
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (CF): Brings speed, power, and energy—capable of changing a game with one swing or on the bases.
- Bryan De La Cruz (OF): Contact-first bat who can pepper Fenway’s gaps for extra-base hits.
Boston Red Sox
- Rafael Devers (3B): Fenway’s lefty slugger with a knack for punishing mistakes into the Monster seats.
- Trevor Story (SS): Can impact the game both defensively and with timely hits in clutch spots.
Key Factors to Watch
- Fenway Factor: Left-handed hitters aiming for the short porch in right, while righties will eye the Green Monster for doubles.
- Ace Efficiency: Alcantara’s ability to induce grounders could neutralize Boston’s gap hitters.
- Bullpen Reliability: Miami’s late-inning struggles could be exposed if Boston keeps it close heading into the seventh.
Best Bets
- Under 8 Runs – Two capable starters in a park that rewards contact but not necessarily homers could keep scoring modest.
- First Five Innings Under 4.5 – Both pitchers should find early success before bullpens come into play.
- Rafael Devers to Record an RBI – Hot bat, favorable park factors, and matchup advantage against Alcantara’s fastball when elevated.
Final Score Prediction: Red Sox 4 – Marlins 2
Alcantara delivers a strong outing but gets little run support. Giolito navigates the Marlins’ lineup effectively, and Boston’s bullpen seals the win behind late RBI hits from Devers and Story.
