The Las Vegas Aces head to Footprint Center on Friday night to face the Phoenix Mercury in a Western Conference battle with serious playoff positioning implications. Phoenix enters as a 4.5-point home favorite, riding an uptick in offensive production and improved health across their roster. The Aces, however, remain one of the most dangerous teams in the league, boasting an elite starting lineup and a championship pedigree. With both teams packed with All-Star talent, this matchup has the potential to be one of the highest-quality games of the week.
Position-by-Position Breakdown
Point Guard – Chelsea Gray directs the Aces’ offense with precision, excelling in creating mismatches and hitting clutch shots. Natasha Cloud runs the show for Phoenix, pushing tempo and distributing effectively to a deep group of scorers.
Shooting Guard – Kelsey Plum remains one of the WNBA’s most dynamic scorers, able to heat up quickly from the perimeter. Diana Taurasi counters for Phoenix with her veteran shot-making and ability to read defenses, though her defensive assignment on Plum could be a challenge.
Small Forward – Jackie Young provides the Aces with elite efficiency, two-way impact, and the ability to guard multiple positions. Sophie Cunningham will be tasked with spacing the floor for Phoenix while also working to slow down Young’s all-around game.
Power Forward – A’ja Wilson is a frontrunner for MVP once again, dominating with scoring versatility, rebounding, and rim protection. Brianna Turner’s length and defensive instincts make her Phoenix’s best option to contest Wilson, though slowing her down is easier said than done.
Center – Kiah Stokes anchors the paint for Las Vegas, bringing physical rebounding and interior defense. Brittney Griner remains the centerpiece of the Mercury frontcourt, with her size, scoring touch, and shot-blocking still among the league’s elite.
Game Outlook
The Aces will look to establish Wilson early and create open perimeter looks for Plum and Young, forcing Phoenix to pick their defensive poison. The Mercury’s success will hinge on ball movement and their ability to match Vegas’s physicality inside. Griner’s presence in the paint will be critical in limiting second-chance points, while Taurasi and Cunningham must hit timely shots to keep pace with the Aces’ offensive firepower.
Best Bets
- Over 166.5 Total Points – Both teams feature multiple high-volume scorers, and the offensive pace could push this into the 170s.
- A’ja Wilson Over Points – Wilson’s combination of size, skill, and aggressiveness makes her a nightmare matchup for Phoenix.
- Las Vegas Aces +4.5 – Even as road underdogs, the Aces’ experience and scoring depth give them strong upset potential.
Final Score Prediction
Las Vegas Aces 89 – Phoenix Mercury 86
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