Quick Game Facts
- Kickoff: Saturday, August 23, 2025 – 6:30 PM ET
- Venue: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
- TV/Stream: FOX
- Odds: Kansas –12, Moneyline: Fresno State +350 / Kansas –450, Total: 50.5
- Weather: 87°F, light winds around 5–8 mph, partly cloudy — warm but manageable conditions for a late August kickoff.
The Jayhawks open the 2025 season at home with high expectations, while Fresno State looks to spoil the debut of Kansas’ much-anticipated campaign. With a dynamic QB returning for KU and a Bulldogs squad adjusting to key personnel changes, this could be a statement game for the Big 12 program. For more insights on Week 0 action, check out our full slate of college football picks.
Team Form & Context
Fresno State Snapshot
- Record: 0–0 (Season opener)
- Recent Form: Finished 2024 at 8–5, capped by a bowl appearance.
- Returning Production: 58% offense / 61% defense
- Notable Injuries/Status: Breaking in a new starting QB after the departure of Mikey Keene.
- Identity: Offensively, the Bulldogs favor quick passing and zone running schemes. Defensively, they bring pressure but were vulnerable against power running teams last year.
Fresno State has been one of the Mountain West’s most consistent programs, but the combination of a new quarterback and a hostile road environment makes this opener especially challenging.
Kansas Snapshot
- Record: 0–0 (Season opener)
- Recent Form: Went 10–4 in 2024, including a bowl win over NC State.
- Returning Production: 75% offense / 73% defense
- Notable Injuries/Status: QB Jalon Daniels returns healthy after missing time last year.
- Identity: Balanced attack with explosive capability, anchored by one of the top offensive lines in the Big 12. The defense has improved in tackling efficiency and limiting big plays.
The Jayhawks enter with legitimate Big 12 title hopes and will be looking to start fast in front of a home crowd buzzing with anticipation.
Matchup Edges (Where This Game Tilts)
Trenches (OL vs DL):
- Kansas’ veteran offensive line should win the battle up front, especially in run blocking.
- Fresno State’s offensive line allowed 30 sacks in 2024 and now faces a deeper KU pass rush.
Explosives & Efficiency:
- Kansas averaged 6.6 yards per play last year; Fresno State’s defense allowed 5.8.
- Fresno State’s passing game may struggle to create chunk gains against a Jayhawk secondary that allowed just 11 completions of 30+ yards last season.
Quarterback & Skill Talent:
- Daniels’ dual-threat ability is a matchup problem for Fresno State’s linebackers.
- Kansas’ WR corps, led by a pair of 2024 700+ yard receivers, should stretch the Bulldogs vertically.
Situational Football:
- Kansas converted 47% on third downs last year; Fresno State allowed opponents to convert at a 42% clip.
- Both teams are strong in the red zone, but Kansas’ power run game gives them the finishing edge.
- Special teams edge leans to Kansas in both field goal range and return game explosiveness.
Coaching & Game Script
- Head Coaches: Jeff Tedford (Fresno State) brings experience and offensive creativity, while Lance Leipold (Kansas) is building one of the most consistent programs in the Big 12.
- Tendencies: Kansas will likely establish the run early to set up deep shots, while Fresno State may use quick passes to slow KU’s pass rush.
- Likely Script: Kansas pulls ahead early, Fresno State adjusts, but the Jayhawks’ depth wears them down.
Betting Lens
Market Movement:
- Line opened at Kansas –11.5 and has moved slightly to –12, indicating modest confidence in the Jayhawks. Total has been steady at 50.5.
Numbers That Matter:
- Kansas was 5–2 ATS at home in 2024.
- Fresno State went 1–3 ATS as a double-digit underdog last season.
Prediction & Best Bets
Projected Score:
- Kansas 35 – Fresno State 17
Best Bets:
- Kansas –12 — The Jayhawks’ combination of QB play, offensive line dominance, and home-field energy points toward a two-touchdown win.
- Under 50.5 — Fresno State’s offense may take time to find rhythm, keeping total points in check.
- Kansas First-Half –6.5 — Expect a quick start from KU in front of a fired-up crowd.
See all our game previews and betting insights in this week’s college football predictions hub.
How to Watch / What to Track Live
- Monitor how Fresno State’s new QB handles early pressure; quick decision-making will be crucial.
- Watch Kansas’ balance between run and pass — if the ground game is dominant early, this could get out of hand.
- Field position from special teams could create short-field scoring chances for the Jayhawks.
Final Word
Kansas has the returning talent and stability to control this game from start to finish. Fresno State’s defense may keep it interesting early, but expect the Jayhawks’ offensive depth and home-field edge to win comfortably.
