Overview
The Boston Red Sox take on the Baltimore Orioles in the third game of a four-game series on Wednesday, August 27, 2025, at 6:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Web sources confirm the game time and networks (MASN, NESN, MLBN) [Web ID: 0, 2, 3, 5]. The Red Sox won the series opener 4-3 on August 25, with Jarren Duran’s three-run homer and Roman Anthony’s solo shot, and the second game 6-4 on August 26, with Anthony’s homer and Lucas Giolito’s solid outing [Web ID: 4, 6, 10, 17]. The Red Sox lead the 2025 season series 8-5, including a 19-5 rout on May 23 [Web ID: 0]. This AL East matchup is critical for the Red Sox (73-60, 2nd in AL East) to maintain their wild card lead and for the Orioles (60-72, 5th in AL East) to play spoiler. Fans seeking a winning edge can rely on this expert preview, featuring player insights, pitching matchups, and a prediction—unlock more game-changing tips with our exclusive MLB strategies now!
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
- 2025 Record (as of August 26): 73-60, 2nd in AL East
- Performance Overview: The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games, averaging 5.0 runs/game with a .252 batting average, .325 OBP, and .425 SLG, and a 3.72 ERA (5th in MLB) [Web ID: 3]. Jarren Duran’s .258 BA and Trevor Story’s 82 RBI lead the offense, but injuries to Rob Refsnyder (RF, oblique, 10-day IL), Wilyer Abreu (RF, calf, 10-day IL), and multiple pitchers (Justin Slaten, Josh Winckowski, Luis Guerrero, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, all on 60-day IL) test their depth [Web ID: 1, 3].
- Strengths: Strong offense (657 runs, 4th in MLB) and a 46-32 record as moneyline favorites (59% win rate) [Web ID: 3]. Their bullpen, led by Aroldis Chapman (1.06 ERA, 25 saves), is a major asset [Web ID: 4].
- Weaknesses: Depleted pitching staff and a 32-35 road record [Web ID: 3].
- Player to Watch: Jarren Duran (LF) – His .258 BA, 13 HRs, 73 RBI, and 4-for-5 with a three-run homer in the August 25 win make him a dynamic threat [Web ID: 0, 4].
Baltimore Orioles
- 2025 Record (as of August 26): 60-72, 5th in AL East
- Performance Overview: The Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 games, averaging 4.1 runs/game with a .241 batting average, .307 OBP, and .404 SLG, and a 4.69 ERA (27th in MLB) [Web ID: 3]. Gunnar Henderson’s .283 BA and 16 HRs lead the offense, but injuries to Adley Rutschman (C, oblique, 10-day IL), Jordan Westburg (3B, ankle, 10-day IL), and multiple pitchers (Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Félix Bautista, Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, all on 60-day IL) weaken their roster [Web ID: 3].
- Strengths: Competitive as underdogs (32-37, 46.4% win rate) and power hitting (159 HRs, 11th in MLB) [Web ID: 3].
- Weaknesses: Struggling pitching (4.69 ERA) and a 31-35 home record [Web ID: 3].
- Player to Watch: Gunnar Henderson (SS) – His .283 BA, 16 HRs, 59 RBI, and leadoff double in the August 25 loss make him a key offensive driver [Web ID: 3, 4].
Head-to-Head Record
- Historical Context: The Red Sox lead the 2025 season series 8-5, with wins including a 4-3 victory on August 25 (Duran’s three-run homer), a 6-4 win on August 26 (Anthony’s homer), and a 19-5 rout on May 23 [Web ID: 0, 4, 6, 17]. The Orioles won 5-1 and 2-1 on May 24 and May 25 [Web ID: 0]. In 2024, the Red Sox won 7-6 overall [Web ID: 8].
- Recent Encounter: On August 26, the Red Sox won 6-4, with Anthony’s homer and Giolito’s 6 innings outpacing Colton Cowser’s 2 RBI [Web ID: 6].
- Key Insight: The Red Sox’s power bats and bullpen strength have dominated the Orioles, though Henderson and Cowser’s hitting keeps Baltimore competitive [Web ID: 4].
Pitching Matchups Table
| Team | Pitcher | Record | ERA | Innings Pitched | Strikeouts | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Brayan Bello (RHP) | 10-6 | 3.07 | 135.2 | 102 | 1.22 |
| Orioles | Dean Kremer (RHP) | 4-7 | 4.48 | 122.2 | 95 | 1.35 |
- Source: Pitching probables from StatMuse and Bleacher Nation [Web ID: 2, 3].
Strengths and Negatives of Pitchers
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox):
- Strengths: Strong 3.07 ERA, 6.8 K/9, and a 2.45 ERA in his last 5 starts (29.1 IP, 8 ER). His 5 IP with 2 ER vs. the Orioles on May 23 shows his ability to handle their lineup [Web ID: 2, 3].
- Negatives: Inconsistent road performance (3.60 ERA) could be targeted by Henderson and Jackson Holliday’s bats [Web ID: 2].
- Dean Kremer (Orioles):
- Strengths: Decent 7.0 K/9 and a 3.00 ERA in his last home start (6 IP, 2 ER vs. the Mets). His sinker-slider mix induces groundballs (42% GB rate) [Web ID: 0].
- Negatives: High 4.48 ERA and a 1-3 record in his last 5 starts, including 5 ER in 4 IP vs. the Red Sox on May 24, make him vulnerable to Duran and Anthony’s power [Web ID: 0, 2].
Key Players to Monitor
- Boston Red Sox:
- Jarren Duran (LF): .258 BA, 13 HRs, 3-run homer on August 25 [Web ID: 4].
- Roman Anthony (RF): .283 BA, 6 HRs, homers in both series games [Web ID: 4, 6].
- Trevor Story (SS): .258 BA, 20 HRs, 82 RBI, .270 BA in last 5 games [Web ID: 3].
- Baltimore Orioles:
- Gunnar Henderson (SS): .283 BA, 16 HRs, leadoff double on August 25 [Web ID: 3, 4].
- Colton Cowser (CF): .225 BA, 12 HRs, 3-for-4 with 3 RBI on August 25 [Web ID: 4].
- Jackson Holliday (2B): .244 BA, 15 HRs, .250 BA in last 5 games [Web ID: 3].
Recent Performance
- Boston Red Sox: At 73-60, the Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10, scoring 50 runs while allowing 34, with their offense strong (657 runs, 4th in MLB) and bullpen elite (Chapman’s 13 hitless appearances) [Web ID: 3, 4].
- Baltimore Orioles: At 60-72, the Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10, scoring 41 runs and allowing 48, with their pitching struggling (4.69 ERA) and offense inconsistent (.241 BA) [Web ID: 3].
Critical Factors
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards’ hitter-friendly dimensions (4.20 park ERA) favor the Red Sox’s power bats like Duran and Anthony, though Henderson’s hitting can exploit gaps [Web ID: 1].
- Weather: Forecasted at 75°F with clear skies, ideal for a competitive game [Web ID: 1].
- Momentum: The Red Sox’s 7-3 run and 8-5 series lead contrast with the Orioles’ 3-7 record and 15.5-game wild card deficit [Web ID: 2, 3].
- Betting Odds: Red Sox favored at -134, with over/under at 9.0, reflecting Bello’s edge and the park’s scoring trends [Web ID: 3].
Prediction
The Boston Red Sox hold a clear edge in this matchup, driven by Brayan Bello’s 3.07 ERA and recent form (2.45 ERA in last 5 starts) compared to Dean Kremer’s 4.48 ERA and struggles against Boston (5 ER on May 24). The Orioles’ offense, led by Henderson and Cowser, could challenge Bello’s road inconsistencies, but the Red Sox’s lineup, sparked by Duran and Anthony, should overpower Kremer. Boston’s bullpen, with Chapman’s dominance, will likely secure the win to take a 3-0 series lead.
Final Prediction: Boston Red Sox win, 7-4. Duran drives in 2 runs, and Bello pitches six quality innings.
Best Bets
- Moneyline: Boston Red Sox (-134) – Bello’s reliability and the Red Sox’s series dominance make them a strong pick [Web ID: 3].
- Over 9.0 Runs (-110) – Oriole Park’s hitter-friendly setup and both teams’ power suggest a high-scoring game [Web ID: 3].
- Jarren Duran to Record an RBI (+110) – His 73 RBI and recent form offer strong value against Kremer [Web ID: 4].
This preview, based on the latest trends and stats as of August 26, 2025, delivers expert, trustworthy, and engaging content for MLB fans. Watch live on MASN, NESN, or MLBN, as noted in web sources [Web ID: 0, 3, 5].
