Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox (65–54) travel to Texas to open a three-game series against the Houston Astros (66–52) on Monday, August 11, 2025. First pitch is set for 8:10 PM ET at Daikin Park in Houston.
Both teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt. Boston is pushing to strengthen its wild-card position, while Houston is looking to hold onto its lead in the AL West. This game also carries extra storylines — Astros fans welcome back Carlos Correa for his home debut this season, and Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman returns to Houston to face his former team.
Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
- Record (as of Aug. 10): 65–54, 2nd in AL East
- Performance Overview: Boston enters this matchup in strong form, having gone 8–2 in their last 10 games. Ace Garrett Crochet has been lights-out, and the lineup has been producing runs with a mix of power and speed. The Red Sox have been a well-balanced team in August, showing both offensive firepower and pitching depth.
Offensive Metrics:
- Batting Average: ~.260
- On-Base Percentage: ~.330
- Slugging Percentage: ~.430
- Runs per Game: ~5.0
Strengths: An elite starting pitcher at the top of the rotation, timely hitting from multiple lineup spots, and an offense capable of scoring in bunches.
Weaknesses: Occasional struggles in extra innings and a middle relief corps that can be inconsistent on the road.
Houston Astros
- Record (as of Aug. 10): 66–52, 1st in AL West
- Performance Overview: Houston has been finding its stride after a midseason slump. Cristian Javier’s return from injury gives the rotation a boost, while Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa have been setting the tone at the plate. The Astros are tough to beat at home, and their recent play suggests they’re rounding into playoff form.
Offensive Metrics:
- Batting Average: ~.255
- On-Base Percentage: ~.325
- Slugging Percentage: ~.415
- Runs per Game: ~4.6
Strengths: Veteran leadership in the infield, home-field advantage, and improving pitching depth.
Weaknesses: Recent inconsistency from some starters, including stretches where run prevention has been an issue.
Head-to-Head Record & Storylines
This is a fresh series between two teams that don’t see each other often, which means there’s less head-to-head familiarity. However, all eyes will be on Alex Bregman, who returns to Houston as a visiting player, and Carlos Correa, who will be making his highly anticipated home debut this season. Both storylines add an emotional edge to this matchup.
Pitching Matchup
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (LHP)
- Record: 13–4
- ERA: ~2.20
- WHIP: ~1.00
- Scouting Report: Crochet has been dominant all season, using a mid-90s fastball and sharp slider to miss bats. He’s been particularly effective at working deep into games and neutralizing right-handed hitters.
Houston Astros: Cristian Javier (RHP)
- Record: Returning from injury
- Scouting Report: Javier is making his return from a lengthy absence and is likely to be on a pitch count. At his best, he mixes a lively fastball with a disappearing slider, but after such a long layoff, command and stamina will be key questions.
Assessment: Crochet enters as the more reliable starter, giving Boston a clear edge on the mound. Javier’s performance will hinge on how sharp he is in his first start back.
Key Players to Monitor
Boston Red Sox:
- Wilyer Abreu (OF): Brings a combination of power, speed, and defensive range.
- Alex Bregman (3B): Looking to make a statement against his former team.
Houston Astros:
- Jose Altuve (DH/2B): Continues to produce at a high level, providing both average and power.
- Carlos Correa (SS): Energized in his return to Houston, could be a difference-maker offensively and defensively.
Recent Performance
Boston: 8–2 in their last 10 games, averaging just over 5 runs per game during that span. Crochet has won three straight starts.
Houston: 5–5 in their last 10, with an offense that has shown flashes of dominance but also bouts of inconsistency. Their home record remains one of the best in the AL West.
Critical Factors
- Venue: Daikin Park tends to reward pitchers who keep the ball down, making Crochet’s ground-ball ability valuable.
- Momentum: Boston comes in hotter, but Houston’s home crowd and lineup depth make them dangerous.
- Pitching Depth: Boston’s bullpen may be tested if Crochet can’t go deep; Houston’s pen needs to back up Javier if he’s on a strict pitch count.
Best Bets & Prediction
Best Bets:
- Red Sox Moneyline (-171) — Crochet’s elite form gives Boston the advantage.
- Under 7.5 Runs — Both starters have the ability to keep this low-scoring, and Javier’s likely limited workload means Houston may deploy their best relievers early.
- First Five Innings — Red Sox ML — Crochet’s dominance early should give Boston the lead by the halfway point.
Final Prediction: Red Sox 4 – Astros 2
Boston uses a strong start from Crochet and timely hitting from the middle of the order to grab the series opener. Houston stays in it with a couple of clutch hits, but Boston’s pitching depth seals the win.
