The Chicago Sky head to PHX Arena on Thursday night to face the Phoenix Mercury in a 10:00 PM EDT Western Conference showdown, airing on Prime Video and AZFamily. Tickets start as low as $19, offering Phoenix fans a chance to catch this critical matchup. The Mercury, with a 22-15 record, are 7.5-point home favorites with an over/under of 161.5 points, coming off an 81-72 win over Golden State. The Sky, at 9-28, are reeling from a 79-74 loss to Las Vegas and are without Courtney Vandersloot (ACL injury). With Phoenix leading the season series 3-0, Chicago faces an uphill battle to snap their skid.
Position-by-Position Breakdown
Point Guard – Dana Evans runs the Sky’s offense with 6.1 assists and 8.7 points, stepping up in Vandersloot’s absence but facing a tough defensive matchup. Natasha Cloud leads the Mercury with 6.2 assists and 11.2 points, a two-way force who sets the tone.
Shooting Guard – Chennedy Carter is Chicago’s scoring spark, averaging 17.2 points and capable of explosive nights. Kahleah Copper counters for Phoenix with 21.1 points, coming off a 25-point performance against the Valkyries.
Small Forward – Angel Reese, questionable with a back injury, averages 12.1 points and a league-leading 13.1 rebounds for the Sky, a rebounding machine when healthy. Satou Sabally gives Phoenix versatility with 17.1 points and 6.6 rebounds, a key playmaker.
Power Forward – Kamilla Cardoso anchors Chicago with 9.8 points and 7.9 rebounds, a rising star in the paint. Alyssa Thomas powers the Mercury with 13.2 points and 9.0 rebounds, a triple-double threat who had 10 points and 10 assists against Chicago earlier.
Center – Elizabeth Williams holds down the Sky’s frontcourt with 8.2 points and 6.8 rebounds, tasked with slowing Phoenix’s bigs. Brittney Griner dominates for the Mercury with 17.8 points and 6.8 rebounds, a matchup nightmare.
Game Outlook
The Mercury are in playoff form, ranking sixth in offense (82.9 PPG) and fourth in defense (80.0 PPG allowed), with a 12-6 home record. They’ve dominated the Sky this season, winning 94-89 on May 27, 107-86 on June 21, and 83-67 on August 3, with Copper averaging 20.3 points across those games. Chicago, at 9-28, ranks 10th in offense (79.8 PPG) and ninth in defense (82.6 PPG allowed), relying on their third-ranked rebounding (35.9 RPG) to stay competitive. Both teams play at a moderate pace, but Phoenix’s depth and home advantage should overwhelm a Sky team missing key players. If Reese plays, Chicago could keep it close early with their board work.
Best Bets
- Phoenix Mercury -7.5 – Phoenix’s 3-0 series lead and home dominance make them a solid pick to cover against a slumping Sky squad.
- Under 161.5 Total Points – Chicago’s offensive struggles and Phoenix’s strong defense suggest a game that could stay under, as seen in their 150-point August 3 meeting.
- Kahleah Copper Over 20.5 Points – Copper’s averaging 21.1 points and cleared this mark in two of the three games against Chicago this season.
Final Score Prediction
Phoenix Mercury 84 – Chicago Sky 74
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