The Phoenix Mercury head to Michelob ULTRA Arena to face the Las Vegas Aces on Thursday night in a 10:00 PM EDT Western Conference showdown, airing on Amazon Prime Video, AZFamily, Merc+, and Vegas 34. Tickets start as low as $20, making it a hot ticket in Vegas. The Aces, with a 22-14 record, are 2.5-point home favorites, with the over/under set at 166.5 points. Phoenix, sitting at 21-13, is coming off a 98-91 road win over Golden State, while Las Vegas rides a six-game win streak after a 74-72 victory against Atlanta. With playoff seeding on the line, this game is a must-watch.
Position-by-Position Breakdown
Point Guard – Natasha Cloud keeps Phoenix’s offense flowing with her 6.2 assists per game, blending playmaking with defensive grit. Chelsea Gray, the Aces’ “Point Gawd,” averages 5.8 assists and brings clutch veteran savvy, ready to exploit any Mercury miscues.
Shooting Guard – Kahleah Copper is Phoenix’s go-to scorer, dropping 21.1 points per game and coming off a 25-point performance against Golden State. Jewell Loyd counters for Las Vegas, averaging 18.7 points and heating up with 21 points in their last win.
Small Forward – Satou Sabally, a two-time All-Star, gives Phoenix versatility with 17.1 points and 6.6 rebounds, though she’ll need to stay disciplined against Vegas’ wings. Jackie Young anchors the Aces with 19.4 points and 7.0 rebounds, fresh off a 16-point, seven-rebound game.
Power Forward – Alyssa Thomas is a triple-double threat for the Mercury, averaging 16.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 9.0 assists, dominating both ends. Alysha Clark provides Las Vegas with defensive toughness and timely shooting, though she’s less of an offensive focal point.
Center – Brittney Griner anchors Phoenix’s paint with 17.8 points and 6.8 rebounds, a matchup nightmare inside. A’ja Wilson, the Aces’ MVP, leads the league with 22.9 points and 9.8 rebounds, coming off a 32-point, 12-rebound masterclass.
Game Outlook
The Aces are on fire, winning six straight and boasting a 16-4 record when scoring over 79.5 points, thanks to Wilson’s dominance and a balanced attack (82.1 PPG, seventh in WNBA). Phoenix isn’t far behind, ranking sixth in scoring (83.1 PPG) and fourth in defense (79.5 PPG allowed), with a 5-6 record as underdogs of +110 or more. The Mercury won the season series opener 76-70 on June 15, but Las Vegas took the rematch 84-81 on June 29, led by Wilson’s 26 points and 18 rebounds. Both teams play at a top-six pace, so expect a high-scoring battle, but Vegas’ home-court edge (11-6 at Michelob ULTRA) and Wilson’s brilliance could tilt the scales. Phoenix needs Copper and Sabally to match Vegas’ firepower to pull off the upset.
Best Bets
Las Vegas Aces -2.5 – The Aces’ six-game win streak and Wilson’s dominance make them a solid pick to cover at home against a tough but inconsistent Mercury squad.
Over 166.5 Total Points – Both teams’ fast pace and top-seven offenses suggest a game that could easily clear this total.
A’ja Wilson Over 23.5 Points – Wilson’s averaging 22.9 points and has cleared this mark in 18 of 33 games, including a 32-point outburst last game.
Final Score Prediction
Las Vegas Aces 88 – Phoenix Mercury 82
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