The Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Guardians close out their weekend series Sunday afternoon at Progressive Field, with first pitch set for 1:40 PM ET. Both teams find themselves in different positions in the standings: Atlanta enters at 54–68 (24–38 away), struggling to piece together consistency, while Cleveland sits at 63–58 (31–29 home), clinging to postseason hopes in a tight AL Wild Card race.
The Braves will turn to Erick Fedde (4–12, 5.40 ERA) to try and secure a rare road series win, while the Guardians counter with young lefty Logan Allen (7–9, 3.94 ERA).
Recent Team Form
Atlanta Braves (Last 5):
- W 2–0 @ CLE
- W 4–3 @ NYM
- W 11–6 @ NYM
- L 13–5 @ NYM
- W 7–1 vs MIA
Atlanta has quietly won four of its last five, powered by improved offense from Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna. The team’s starting pitching, however, remains shaky — they’ve allowed 19 runs across those same five games.
Cleveland Guardians (Last 5):
- L 2–0 vs ATL
- W 9–4 vs MIA
- L 13–4 vs MIA
- W 4–3 vs MIA
- L 6–4 @ CHW
Cleveland has alternated wins and losses, and their bullpen has been taxed heavily. The absence of closer Emmanuel Clase (out for season) looms large, putting added pressure on starters like Allen to work deeper into games.
Probable Pitchers
| Team | Starter | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR | Blurb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Erick Fedde (RHP) | 4–12 | 5.40 | 1.49 | 116.2 | 119 | 70 | 55 | 16 | Fedde has struggled all year with command, walking nearly as many as he’s struck out. His margin for error is slim against contact-heavy lineups like Cleveland’s. |
| CLE | Logan Allen (LHP) | 7–9 | 3.94 | 1.38 | 118.2 | 116 | 92 | 48 | 14 | Allen has been inconsistent but flashes swing-and-miss potential. His ability to neutralize left-handed bats like Olson could tilt the matchup. |
Key Players to Watch
Atlanta Braves:
- Matt Olson (71 RBI, .265 AVG) — has been the Braves’ most consistent run producer.
- Marcell Ozuna (20 HR, 59 RBI) — power bat capable of changing the game with one swing.
- Fedde — can he limit traffic on the bases long enough to give Atlanta’s lineup a chance?
Cleveland Guardians:
- José Ramírez (25 HR, 64 RBI, .295 AVG) — the heart of the lineup and one of MLB’s most complete hitters.
- Logan Allen — needs to give Cleveland length with a bullpen still reeling.
- Steven Kwan (not listed in leaders, but batting near .300 this year) — table-setter who can spark Cleveland’s offense.
Matchup Breakdown
Atlanta actually holds a slight edge offensively in raw production, ranking higher in runs scored (521 vs. CLE’s 483) and home runs (136 vs. 128). But Cleveland has been better at manufacturing runs in close games, thanks largely to Ramírez’s clutch hitting.
The biggest gap is in pitching. Fedde’s inflated ERA and walk rate are glaring weaknesses, and the Guardians will look to extend at-bats and grind him down. Allen, while far from dominant, has shown steadiness at home and has the advantage of facing a Braves team that struggles against lefties (.242 team AVG overall).
Bullpen depth leans slightly Atlanta’s way with Cleveland missing Clase, but that edge shrinks if Fedde exits early.
Best Bets
- Guardians ML (-130) — Cleveland should capitalize on Fedde’s struggles, especially at Progressive Field.
- Over 8.5 (-135) — Fedde’s wildness and the Guardians’ inconsistent bullpen point to scoring opportunities on both sides.
- José Ramírez to Record a Hit & RBI — he’s the centerpiece of Cleveland’s attack and thrives against right-handed pitching.
Prediction
Atlanta has played better baseball over the past week, but this matchup feels like a tough ask on the road. Fedde simply hasn’t shown the ability to suppress lineups consistently, and Cleveland, while flawed, has enough offensive punch to control this one behind Allen. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair where Cleveland’s lineup does just enough to support their starter.
Final Score: Guardians 6, Braves 4
