The Marlins visit Fenway for a Sunday matinee with first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. Boston’s push to stack wins at home meets a Miami club trying to manufacture offense and lean on run prevention. With the market sitting Red Sox -240, total 8.5, we’re handicapping a favorite that should control run expectancy early and often.
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Game Overview
Boston profiles as the more complete side right now—length from the starter, a lineup that punishes mistakes, and enough bullpen to land the plane. Miami’s path is narrower: steal a few early counts, keep traffic off the bases, and hope for soft contact in a tough yard for visiting pitchers.
Team Form
Marlins: Offense has lived in the bottom third for most of the season; when they score, it’s usually via a few well-timed extra-base hits rather than sustained rallies. Defense has been cleaner of late, but the margin for error is thin at Fenway.
Red Sox: Middle of the order is carrying torque—Boston’s best innings start with traffic and end with doubles off the wall. They’ve also tightened late-inning sequencing at home.
Pitching Matchup
| Team | Starter | Record / ERA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Janson Junk (RHP) | — | Strike-thrower who needs edge calls. When behind, the four-seam flattens and hard contact follows. Best when living down with the slider/change mix. |
| Red Sox | Garrett Crochet (LHP) | — | Ace-level bat-missing profile. Tunnels the elevated heater with a wipeout slider; plays up at Fenway vs free-swinging lineups. Efficiency is the key—if he’s in the zone early, it’s a long day for Miami. |
(Using your confirmed starters; day-of W-L/ERA can be dropped in at publish if you want exact numbers shown.)
Key Players to Watch
MIA: Jazz Chisholm Jr. — if he’s on twice, Miami can pressure with speed; Jake Burger — best shot at punishing a mistake heater.
BOS: Rafael Devers — matchup-proof barrel rate; Triston Casas — patience plus pull-side loft plays perfectly here.
Critical Factors
- Count leverage: Junk must win early strikes; 1-0/2-1 counts tilt hard toward Boston’s damage hitters.
- Contact quality: Crochet’s K% trims Miami’s already tight runways; if he’s landing the slider, Miami will live on weak fly balls.
- Bullpens: Edge Boston. If the Sox hand it over with a lead, matchup flexibility should close.
Best Bets
- Red Sox -1.5 (Run Line) — Crochet’s whiff rate plus Fenway’s run creation for Boston’s core supports a multi-run script.
- Under 8.5 (first 5 lean) — Crochet suppression early; Miami’s path is thin unless Boston explodes. Full-game total is closer; first-5 under is the cleaner angle.
- Rafael Devers to Record an RBI — Prime RBI contexts vs a contact-leaning righty who can’t live up in the zone forever here.
Prediction
I’m pricing Boston to control tempo from pitch one. Crochet’s swing-and-miss sets the tone, the Sox create a crooked number in the middle innings, and the bullpen handles the rest.
Final Score: Red Sox 5, Marlins 2
